Tre Penne’s recent 3-2 win over San Giovanni and a current 2-game winning streak signal a potent attack, while Juvenes / Dogana’s 4-0 triumph over Faetano shows they can strike when they feel confident. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.7 goals and a most likely total of three goals at a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Tre Penne, carrying a 9.3% chance. Home advantage is clear: Tre Penne averages 3.6 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Juvenes / Dogana averages 0.4 scored and 3.2 conceded at home against stronger teams. The probabilities of each match outcome are 61% for a home win, 20% for a draw, and 19% for an away win, making a home win the favoured result. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89.1% and Over 2.5 goals at 71.3%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Tre Penne, the pre-match favourite with a 61% chance of victory, fell to a 3-2 defeat, leaving the model’s call wrong. The final score of 2-3 gave the away side a win, a result that surprised the model’s expectation of a home triumph. Tre Penne’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, had set the stage for a strong performance, yet the visitors capitalised on their momentum, having just secured a 4-0 victory. The model’s selections for the total goals were both correct: Over 1.5, with an 89.1% probability, and Over 2.5, with a 71.3% probability, both hit. The prediction of a home win was the only miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Penne win✗ Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win✓ Hit
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Penne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.30
2.53
1.41
2.08
1.15
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
5.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (11)
1.64
1.73
1.17
2.67
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
3.06
0.59
3.60
0.50
2.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.73
1.00
1.71
1.62
1.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
2.42
0.29
1.86
0.40
3.20
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.38
1.67
1.50
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.3%
Under 2.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-0
5.2%
1-2
5.0%
Tre Penne goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.5%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
1
5.2%
8.5%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
2
7.1%
9.3%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.7%
7.4%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.4%
4.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Tre Penne is 0.43 points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Tre Penne is 0.83 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (2.37 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Tre Penne is 0.61 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tre Penne
For 1.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juvenes / Dogana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Penne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
7.2
6.3
10.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
23.0
-
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
8.0
10.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (18)
5.5
5.5
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
100%
4%
4%
5%
100%
-
100%
% under line
50%
67%
0%
96%
96%
95%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.94
0.76
0.92
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.91
0.67
1.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.35
1.20
0.40
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.36
0.43
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.08
0.14
0.71
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.46
0.33
0.17
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.59
0.65
1.15
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
0.50
1.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.82
0.24
2.40
0.10
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.64
1.29
1.19
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.33
0.14
1.14
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.33
1.33
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Murata
Cosmos
Tre Fiori
San Giovanni
Folgore
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Faetano
Libertas
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Pennarossa