Tre Penne are tipped to win the San-Marino Campionato clash against Juvenes / Dogana, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of an away win. The model expects a modest 2.4 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at a 13.2% probability. Tre Penne, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.3 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded, while Juvenes / Dogana, on the road to a stronger opponent, average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (99%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.3%), Under 11.5 corners (94.5%), Over 23.5 fouls (93.6%), Under 10.5 corners (89.9%), Over 25.5 fouls (87.3%), Under 9.5 corners (82.7%) and Over 2.5 cards (80.5%). Tre Penne’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Juvenes / Dogana come off a victory, setting the stage for a likely home victory.
Results analysis
Tre Penne extended their two-game winning run to a 3-1 victory over Juvenes / Dogana, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of a home win with a 52% probability. The prediction was correct, as the final score matched the actual result. Tre Penne’s recent form, highlighted by a win against San Giovanni, and Juvenes / Dogana’s return to winning after a 4-0 triumph over Faetano, set the stage for a decisive home performance. The model’s expected total of 2.4 goals was close to the 4 goals scored, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (27% probability) was not hit, but the overall call remained accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Penne win✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Penne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.67
1.93
0.36
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.45
0.50
2.30
0.30
2.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.23
1.33
1.27
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.31
1.14
1.29
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.38
1.50
1.33
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.7%
Under 1.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
13.1%
2-0
10.9%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
Tre Penne goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.7%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Tre Penne is 0.99 points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Tre Penne is 1.02 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Tre Penne is 0.64 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Tre Penne is 13.0 percentage points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average possession (60% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tre Penne
For 7.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 19.0 · Total 34.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juvenes / Dogana
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tre Penne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (31)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
-
4.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
32.0
-
32.0
vs Stronger (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
32.0
-
32.0
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Fiori
8.4
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
6.8
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Tre Fiori
30.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
17.3%
Under 9.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.7%
Under 3.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.07
0.07
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.35
1.30
0.10
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.38
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.67
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.86
0.29
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.15
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.10
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.92
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →