Tre Penne are the clear favorites for a home win, a result the model rates at 67% while the draw sits at 22% and an away victory is only 11%. The club’s home form shows a potent attack, averaging 2.8 goals per game, and a stingy defense conceding just 0.5, especially against weaker opposition. Juvenes / Dogana, playing away against a stronger side, struggle to score, averaging only 0.57 goals, and concede 1.14. The expected total goals for the match is 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is a 2-0 win for Tre Penne, carrying a 14% probability. Suggested picks from the model include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.1%, Home +2 handicap at 97.0%, Under 5.5 at 95.1%, Home or Draw at 89.2%, and Home +1 handicap at 89.2%. Tre Penne’s recent win over Domagnano and Juvenes / Dogana’s defeat to Virtus underline the home side’s advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Penne win
66.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win
10.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Penne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.67
2.13
0.53
2.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.73
0.83
0.67
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
2.84
0.63
3.00
0.44
2.70
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.38
1.44
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.42
0.40
1.80
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.31
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.2%
1-0
14.1%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-0
4.2%
Tre Penne goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
14%
11%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.9%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.2%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Tre Penne is 0.25 points worse than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Tre Penne is 0.17 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Tre Penne is 0.17 goals worse than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Penne or Draw
89.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Tre Penne + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne or Juvenes / Dogana
77.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Tre Penne + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Juvenes / Dogana
33.9%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Draw + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Penne, so a minus line means Tre Penne give that many goals of a start and Juvenes / Dogana receive them. At -1, Tre Penne must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Penne win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne -2
20.0%
Draw -2
20.9%
Juvenes / Dogana +2
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne -1
40.9%
Draw -1
25.2%
Juvenes / Dogana +1
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne +1
89.1%
Draw +1
8.0%
Juvenes / Dogana -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.4%
Juvenes / Dogana -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.40
0.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.27
0.50
0.17
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.42
2.00
0.11
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
67% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
0.73
0.40
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.21
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.10
Clean sheet %
70% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.75
0.94
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata