Tre Penne are favoured to win, with a 57 % chance of triumph, a 27 % draw probability and a 16 % chance for Juvenes / Dogana to come out on top. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Tre Penne, with a 14.5 % chance. Tre Penne, playing at home against a weaker opponent, have been prolific, averaging 2.8 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Juvenes / Dogana, on the road against a stronger side, have struggled, scoring only 0.57 and conceding 1.14 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.0 %, Under 6.5 at 99.0 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.3 %, Under 5.5 at 96.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.2 %, and Home +2 handicap at 95.2 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tre Penne win
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tre Penne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.67
2.13
0.53
2.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.73
0.83
0.67
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
2.84
0.63
3.00
0.44
2.70
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.38
1.44
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.42
0.40
1.80
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.31
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
12.4%
0-0
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.8%
Tre Penne goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.0%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
6.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Tre Penne is 0.99 points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Tre Penne is 1.02 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Tre Penne is 0.64 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Tre Penne is 13.0 percentage points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average possession (60% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tre Penne
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Juvenes / Dogana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Penne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (31)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
-
4.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
32.0
-
32.0
vs Stronger (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
32.0
-
32.0
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
19.2%
Under 9.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tre Penne or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Tre Penne + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne or Juvenes / Dogana
72.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Tre Penne + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Juvenes / Dogana
43.1%
Avg Implied -
57%
27%
16%
covers Draw + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tre Penne, so a minus line means Tre Penne give that many goals of a start and Juvenes / Dogana receive them. At -1, Tre Penne must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tre Penne win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne -2
13.4%
Draw -2
18.0%
Juvenes / Dogana +2
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne -1
31.4%
Draw -1
25.5%
Juvenes / Dogana +1
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne +1
84.2%
Draw +1
11.1%
Juvenes / Dogana -1
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tre Penne)
Tre Penne +2
95.2%
Draw +2
3.8%
Juvenes / Dogana -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.40
0.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.27
0.50
0.17
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.42
2.00
0.11
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tre Penne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
0.73
0.40
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.21
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.10
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.75
0.94
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata