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Tre Penne vs La Fiorita Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 0-1
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
La Fiorita
La Fiorita
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Tre Penne a 42% win probability against La Fiorita in the San-Marino: Campionato on 2026-05-12, with 30% for the draw and 28% for La Fiorita. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (99%), Over 21.5 fouls (97%), Over 23.5 fouls (94%), Under 11.5 corners (93%).

Results analysis

Tre Penne finished 0-1 against La Fiorita (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 42% home win, 30% draw and 28% away win.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tre Penne win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Tre PenneTre Penne

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W40W11D11D61W31W40W00D00D11DA·DOM08/03A·MUR15/03H·FOL22/03H·VIR08/04H·CAI11/04A·LIB19/04H·SAN26/04H·COS03/05A·COS06/05A·LA 09/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.632.140.362.060.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.820.820.800.400.831.17
vs Weaker (19)2.840.532.890.332.800.70
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D50W00D30W11D31W21W10W23L11DA·FOL08/03H·PEN14/03A·TRE22/03H·SAN07/04A·DOM11/04H·COS19/04A·FIO25/04H·FIO02/05A·FIO05/05H·TRE09/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.930.872.000.881.860.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.831.171.251.250.001.00
vs Weaker (24)2.210.792.250.752.170.83
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
8.6%
0-1 ✓
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.1%
Tre Penne goals ↓
La Fiorita goals →
01234
010%8.4%5.1%1.8%0.5%
111%14%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.2%8.6%4.5%1.6%0.4%
33.7%3.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = La Fiorita goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Tre Penne is 0.20 points better than La Fiorita in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Tre Penne is 0.14 goals better than La Fiorita in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 2.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Tre Penne is 0.29 goals better than La Fiorita in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 0.89).

⏱ïļ Possession

Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Tre PenneTre Penne

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Tre PenneTre Penne

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.0-0.10.20.034.034.0-
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (33)10.010.0-0.10.20.034.034.0-
% over line100%100%-2%4%0%100%100%-
% under line0%0%-98%96%100%0%0%-
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (39)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Fiori
8.4
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
6.8
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Tre Fiori
30.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
20.9%
Under 9.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.0%
Under 3.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tre PenneTre Penne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W10W10W30W01L20W00D00D01LA·DOM08/03A·MUR15/03H·FOL22/03H·VIR08/04H·CAI11/04A·LIB19/04H·SAN26/04H·COS03/05A·COS06/05A·LA 09/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.331.360.000.750.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.270.360.400.000.170.67
vs Weaker (19)1.470.321.890.001.100.60
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W00D20W10W31W11D00D12L10WA·FOL08/03H·PEN14/03A·TRE22/03H·SAN07/04A·DOM11/04H·COS19/04A·FIO25/04H·FIO02/05A·FIO05/05H·TRE09/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.330.940.440.860.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.500.500.750.750.000.00
vs Weaker (24)1.000.291.000.331.000.25
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls99.1%--------
Over 21.5 fouls97.4%--------
Over 23.5 fouls93.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners92.8%--------
Over 25.5 fouls87.7%--------
Under 10.5 corners87.3%--------
Over 2.5 cards79.4%--------
Under 9.5 corners79.1%--------
Under 3.578.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards74.8%--------
Over 1.570.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
SMA (33)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
Tre Penne and La Fiorita have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
TP wins
4
Draws
3
LF wins

Head-to-head

Tre Penne vs La Fiorita · H/A from TP
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ALa Fiorita Vs TP1-1
31/01/26HTP Vs La Fiorita2-0
28/09/25ALa Fiorita Vs TP1-1
19/01/25ALa Fiorita Vs TP2-0
01/09/24HTP Vs La Fiorita1-1
07/04/24ALa Fiorita Vs TP3-2
17/12/23HTP Vs La Fiorita1-2
05/03/23HTP Vs La Fiorita1-1

Tre PenneTre Penne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ALa Fiorita Vs TP1-1
06/05/26ACosmos Vs TP0-0
03/05/26HTP Vs Cosmos0-0
26/04/26HTP Vs San Giovanni4-0
19/04/26ALibertas Vs TP1-3
11/04/26HTP Vs Cailungo6-1
08/04/26HTP Vs Virtus1-1
22/03/26HTP Vs Folgore1-1
15/03/26AMurata Vs TP0-4
08/03/26ADomagnano Vs TP1-2

La FioritaLa Fiorita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HLF Vs Tre Penne1-1
05/05/26AFiorentino Vs LF3-2
02/05/26HLF Vs Fiorentino1-0
25/04/26AFiorentino Vs LF1-2
19/04/26HLF Vs Cosmos3-1
11/04/26ADomagnano Vs LF1-1
07/04/26HLF Vs San Giovanni3-0
22/03/26ATre Fiori Vs LF0-0
14/03/26HLF Vs Pennarossa5-0
08/03/26AFolgore Vs LF1-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD1.98
HomeDDWWD2.12
AwayWWWDD1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%60%52%
AVG goals2.742.922.56
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.962.161.76
Conceded0.780.760.80
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet46%48%44%
Corners10.0010.00-
Cards4.004.00-
La Fiorita
La Fiorita
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD2.06
HomeWWWWD2.22
AwayDDDWL1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%63%52%
AVG goals2.862.932.78
Over 1.5 %86%85%87%
Over 2.5 %58%59%57%
Over 3.5 %34%37%30%
Scored2.042.191.87
Conceded0.820.740.91
BTTS50%56%43%
Clean Sheet44%41%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VirtusVirtus3582
71%
2.3
8324+59
3.1
89%
60%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.40.7
-
2Tre PenneTre Penne3576
63%
2.2
7521+54
2.7
83%
46%
31%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
34.0
100%
1
0002.10.6
60%
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3073
73%
2.4
6313+50
2.5
73%
50%
33%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
30.0
100%
1
0002.10.4
64%
4La FioritaLa Fiorita3569
54%
2.0
7031+39
2.9
86%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.9
-
5FolgoreFolgore3260
53%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
88%
66%
38%
5.0
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.1
-
6DomagnanoDomagnano3555
46%
1.6
6644+22
3.1
80%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.3
-
7FiorentinoFiorentino3249
47%
1.5
4045-5
2.7
72%
50%
25%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
34.0
100%
1
0001.21.4
40%
8CosmosCosmos3347
36%
1.4
3323+10
1.7
48%
30%
9%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
30.0
100%
1
0001.00.7
36%
9Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3339
27%
1.2
3741-4
2.4
70%
36%
24%
4.0
0%
5.0
100%
32.0
100%
1
0001.11.2
47%
10LibertasLibertas3136
29%
1.2
3364-31
3.1
77%
52%
39%
12.0
100%
3.0
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
49%
11PennarossaPennarossa3132
26%
1.0
2956-27
2.7
84%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.91.8
-
12San GiovanniSan Giovanni3031
23%
1.0
2443-19
2.2
77%
37%
17%
4.0
0%
5.0
100%
32.0
100%
1
0000.81.4
53%
13FaetanoFaetano3022
20%
0.7
2255-33
2.6
77%
47%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.71.8
-
14San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
10%
0.5
2360-37
2.8
83%
47%
27%
12.0
100%
3.0
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
51%
15CailungoCailungo3011
7%
0.4
2371-48
3.1
87%
60%
30%
5.0
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
16MurataMurata307
3%
0.2
2083-63
3.4
97%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.8
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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