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Tre Penne vs Libertas Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2023
Time: 20:15
Final 4-0
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
Vs
49%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Libertas
Libertas
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tre Penne win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Tre PenneTre Penne

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W20W30W21W21W20W10W11D21W51WA·PEN08/01H·FAE15/01H·CAI28/01A·DOM04/02A·TRE12/02H·MUR19/02A·JUV25/02H·LA 05/03H·VIR08/03A·FIO11/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.790.961.750.921.831.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.501.201.400.601.60
vs Weaker (14)2.430.572.140.572.710.57
Clean sheet %38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W10W32W21W22D00D33D21W11D01LA·MUR08/01H·SAN14/01A·FOL21/01H·FAE29/01H·VIR12/02H·TRE19/02H·FIO03/03A·CAI08/03H·LA 11/03A·COS14/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.271.331.171.701.40
vs Stronger (11)0.911.000.670.831.201.20
vs Similar (9)2.221.672.201.602.251.75
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %14% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
Tre Penne goals ↓
Libertas goals →
01234
07.0%5.6%3.9%1.5%0.4%
18.7%12%6.5%2.5%0.7%
28.3%9.6%5.5%2.1%0.6%
34.7%5.4%3.1%1.2%0.3%
42.0%2.3%1.3%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tre Penne goals (down), columns = Libertas goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Cosmos
2.48
Tre Penne
2.43
La Fiorita
2.12
Virtus
1.91
Tre Fiori
1.90
Libertas
1.55
Folgore
1.10
Murata
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.03
Faetano
0.90
Domagnano
0.90
Pennarossa
0.89
San Giovanni
0.82
Fiorentino
0.82
Cailungo
0.64
Tre Penne is 0.88 points better than Libertas in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.55).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.30
Tre Penne
2.14
Virtus
1.76
Libertas
1.61
Tre Fiori
1.57
La Fiorita
1.48
Murata
1.41
Pennarossa
1.39
Juvenes / Dogana
1.39
Fiorentino
1.32
Domagnano
1.31
Faetano
1.19
Folgore
1.13
Cailungo
1.04
San Giovanni
1.00
Tre Penne is 0.54 goals better than Libertas in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.61).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Cosmos
0.45
La Fiorita
0.61
Tre Penne
0.68
Tre Fiori
0.80
Virtus
0.91
Libertas
1.21
Folgore
1.70
Juvenes / Dogana
1.71
Domagnano
1.76
San Giovanni
1.93
Murata
2.00
Pennarossa
2.04
Fiorentino
2.07
Faetano
2.26
Cailungo
2.46
Tre Penne is 0.53 goals better than Libertas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.21).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Tre PenneTre Penne

For 4.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1104711H·TUZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 5.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50415H·TUZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

LibertasLibertas

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Tre PenneTre Penne

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (24)11.011.0-0.20.40.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (10)11.011.0-0.51.00.0---
vs Weaker (14)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%100%-4%8%0%---
% under line0%0%-96%92%100%---
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (9)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Tre Penne
11.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
Tre Penne
5.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tre PenneTre Penne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W20W00D10W00D10W11D00D21WA·PEN08/01H·FAE15/01H·CAI28/01A·DOM04/02A·TRE12/02H·MUR19/02A·JUV25/02H·LA 05/03H·VIR08/03A·FIO11/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.330.500.330.920.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.200.500.200.600.200.40
vs Weaker (14)1.070.210.710.141.430.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W11D00D11D00D11D10W10W01LA·MUR08/01H·SAN14/01A·FOL21/01H·FAE29/01H·VIR12/02H·TRE19/02H·FIO03/03A·CAI08/03H·LA 11/03A·COS14/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.410.750.330.700.50
vs Stronger (11)0.640.450.500.330.800.60
vs Similar (9)0.890.441.200.400.500.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tre PenneTre Penne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W10W21W11D20W00D00D21W30WA·PEN08/01H·FAE15/01H·CAI28/01A·DOM04/02A·TRE12/02H·MUR19/02A·JUV25/02H·LA 05/03H·VIR08/03A·FIO11/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.621.250.580.920.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.701.001.000.800.401.20
vs Weaker (14)1.360.361.430.431.290.29
Clean sheet %62% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LibertasLibertas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D21W21W11D00D22D11D01L00DA·MUR08/01H·SAN14/01A·FOL21/01H·FAE29/01H·VIR12/02H·TRE19/02H·FIO03/03A·CAI08/03H·LA 11/03A·COS14/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.860.580.831.000.90
vs Stronger (11)0.270.550.170.500.400.60
vs Similar (9)1.331.221.001.201.751.25
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %32% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Tre Penne and Libertas have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Libertas have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Tre Penne and Libertas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Tre Penne and Libertas have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
TP wins
0
Draws
0
LIB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tre Penne vs Libertas · H/A from TP
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/22ALibertas Vs TP0-1

Tre PenneTre Penne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/23AFiorentino Vs TP1-5
08/03/23HTP Vs Virtus2-1
05/03/23HTP Vs La Fiorita1-1
25/02/23AJuvenes / Dogana Vs TP0-1
19/02/23HTP Vs Murata2-0
12/02/23ATre Fiori Vs TP1-2
04/02/23ADomagnano Vs TP1-2
28/01/23HTP Vs Cailungo3-0
15/01/23HTP Vs Faetano2-0
08/01/23APennarossa Vs TP1-4

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/23ACosmos Vs LIB1-0
11/03/23HLIB Vs La Fiorita1-1
08/03/23ACailungo Vs LIB1-2
03/03/23HLIB Vs Fiorentino3-3
19/02/23HLIB Vs Tre Fiori0-0
12/02/23HLIB Vs Virtus2-2
29/01/23HLIB Vs Faetano2-1
21/01/23AFolgore Vs LIB2-3
14/01/23HLIB Vs San Giovanni1-0
08/01/23AMurata Vs LIB2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW2.17
HomeWWWDW2.00
AwayWWWWW2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%58%75%
AVG goals2.752.672.83
Over 1.5 %79%100%58%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %25%17%33%
Scored1.791.751.83
Conceded0.960.921.00
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet38%33%42%
Corners11.0011.00-
Cards5.005.00-
Libertas
Libertas
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL1.55
HomeWDDDD1.42
AwayDWWWL1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%25%50%
AVG goals2.772.503.10
Over 1.5 %73%67%80%
Over 2.5 %50%42%60%
Over 3.5 %32%25%40%
Scored1.501.331.70
Conceded1.271.171.40
BTTS73%67%80%
Clean Sheet14%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CosmosCosmos3382
76%
2.5
7615+61
2.8
79%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.5
-
2La FioritaLa Fiorita3370
64%
2.1
4920+29
2.1
67%
30%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.50.6
-
3Tre PenneTre Penne2868
75%
2.4
6019+41
2.8
82%
54%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.7
-
4VirtusVirtus3363
52%
1.9
5830+28
2.7
82%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.80.9
-
5Tre FioriTre Fiori3057
57%
1.9
4724+23
2.4
77%
47%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.60.8
-
6LibertasLibertas3351
39%
1.5
5340+13
2.8
76%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
7FolgoreFolgore3033
30%
1.1
3451-17
2.8
87%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
8Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3132
29%
1.0
4353-10
3.1
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.7
-
9MurataMurata2930
31%
1.0
4158-17
3.4
83%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
10FaetanoFaetano3128
26%
0.9
3770-33
3.5
90%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.3
-
11DomagnanoDomagnano2926
21%
0.9
3851-13
3.1
86%
62%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.8
-
12PennarossaPennarossa2825
25%
0.9
3957-18
3.4
86%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
13FiorentinoFiorentino2823
18%
0.8
3758-21
3.4
82%
61%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14San GiovanniSan Giovanni2823
21%
0.8
2854-26
2.9
86%
54%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
15CailungoCailungo2818
14%
0.6
2969-40
3.5
89%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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