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Treaty United vs Longford Town Result & Analysis

Date: 04/08/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 2-3
Treaty United
Treaty United
Vs
32%
27%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Treaty United win✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-730W03L03L07L11D01L20W11D32W01LA·LON13/05H·GAL19/05H·FIN26/05A·WAT02/06H·WEX05/06H·COB09/06A·ATH23/06H·BRA30/06A·KER07/07A·WEX28/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.771.071.871.331.67
vs Stronger (15)1.002.271.002.431.002.12
vs Similar (12)1.081.330.711.571.601.00
vs Weaker (3)2.671.004.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W00D01L01L23L04L21W22D21W01LA·WEX19/05H·WAT27/05A·ATH02/06A·COB05/06H·FIN09/06A·GAL23/06H·WEX01/07A·WAT07/07H·KER15/07H·COB29/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.531.001.331.401.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.231.621.171.171.292.00
vs Weaker (17)1.181.470.891.441.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.7%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
Treaty United goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
01234
06.7%7.4%6.7%3.5%1.4%
16.2%13%9.0%4.7%1.8%
24.9%7.7%6.0%3.1%1.2%
32.2%3.4%2.7%1.4%0.5%
40.7%1.2%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Galway United
2.61
Waterford
1.90
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Wexford
1.42
Athlone Town
1.26
Treaty United
1.22
Bray Wanderers
1.22
Longford Town
1.11
Finn Harps
1.03
Kerry
0.28
Treaty United is 0.11 points better than Longford Town in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Galway United
2.72
Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.36
Bray Wanderers
1.33
Wexford
1.29
Longford Town
1.08
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.81
Treaty United is 0.28 goals better than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.08).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Galway United
0.50
Waterford
0.90
Wexford
1.34
Cobh Ramblers
1.36
Longford Town
1.42
Treaty United
1.69
Athlone Town
1.71
Bray Wanderers
1.72
Finn Harps
2.06
Kerry
2.53
Treaty United is 0.28 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W02L02L05L01L00D10W11D21W01LA·LON13/05H·GAL19/05H·FIN26/05A·WAT02/06H·WEX05/06H·COB09/06A·ATH23/06H·BRA30/06A·KER07/07A·WEX28/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.930.530.870.731.00
vs Stronger (15)0.531.330.291.290.751.38
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.430.570.400.40
vs Weaker (3)2.000.673.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L00D10W00D11D12L10W01LA·WEX19/05H·WAT27/05A·ATH02/06A·COB05/06H·FIN09/06A·GAL23/06H·WEX01/07A·WAT07/07H·KER15/07H·COB29/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.600.400.800.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.770.620.670.500.860.71
vs Weaker (17)0.650.470.560.330.750.62
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L02L10W01L10W00D11D00DA·LON13/05H·GAL19/05H·FIN26/05A·WAT02/06H·WEX05/06H·COB09/06A·ATH23/06H·BRA30/06A·KER07/07A·WEX28/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.531.000.600.67
vs Stronger (15)0.470.930.711.140.250.75
vs Similar (12)0.670.830.291.001.200.60
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D01L13L04L10W10W11D00DA·WEX19/05H·WAT27/05A·ATH02/06A·COB05/06H·FIN09/06A·GAL23/06H·WEX01/07A·WAT07/07H·KER15/07H·COB29/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.400.930.601.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.461.000.500.670.431.29
vs Weaker (17)0.531.000.331.110.750.88
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WAT (6)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
TU wins
3
Draws
0
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Treaty United vs Longford Town · H/A from TU
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/23ALongford Town Vs TU0-3
07/04/23HTU Vs Longford Town3-2
24/09/22ALongford Town Vs TU1-1
08/07/22HTU Vs Longford Town3-0
16/05/22HTU Vs Longford Town0-0
23/04/22ALongford Town Vs TU0-0

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/23AWexford Vs TU1-0
07/07/23AKerry Vs TU2-3
30/06/23HTU Vs Bray Wanderers1-1
23/06/23AAthlone Town Vs TU0-2
09/06/23HTU Vs Cobh Ramblers0-1
05/06/23HTU Vs Wexford1-1
02/06/23AWaterford Vs TU7-0
26/05/23HTU Vs Finn Harps0-3
19/05/23HTU Vs Galway United0-3
13/05/23ALongford Town Vs TU0-3

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/07/23HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers0-1
15/07/23HLT Vs Kerry2-1
07/07/23AWaterford Vs LT2-2
01/07/23HLT Vs Wexford2-1
23/06/23AGalway United Vs LT4-0
09/06/23HLT Vs Finn Harps2-3
05/06/23ACobh Ramblers Vs LT1-0
02/06/23AAthlone Town Vs LT1-0
27/05/23HLT Vs Waterford0-0
19/05/23AWexford Vs LT0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.22
HomeLLDLD1.20
AwayWLWWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.783.002.56
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %52%68%36%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.181.241.12
Conceded1.601.761.44
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet24%16%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.22
HomeDLWWL1.28
AwayWLLLD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.702.243.16
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %56%44%68%
Over 3.5 %28%16%40%
Scored1.241.041.44
Conceded1.461.201.72
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Galway UnitedGalway United3694
83%
2.6
9818+80
3.2
75%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.5
-
2WaterfordWaterford3974
54%
1.9
8935+54
3.2
77%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.30.9
-
3Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3964
44%
1.6
6453+11
3.0
77%
51%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.4
-
4WexfordWexford3854
39%
1.4
4951-2
2.6
79%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
5Athlone TownAthlone Town3848
37%
1.3
5765-8
3.2
76%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
6Treaty UnitedTreaty United3644
33%
1.2
4961-12
3.1
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3644
28%
1.2
4862-14
3.1
83%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8Longford TownLongford Town3640
28%
1.1
3951-12
2.5
64%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Finn HarpsFinn Harps3637
25%
1.0
3974-35
3.1
75%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
10KerryKerry3610
3%
0.3
2991-62
3.3
83%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Ireland: First Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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