Trefelin’s recent slump of four straight defeats sets a tense tone, yet the model still favors a home win at 41 %. The odds show a 29 % chance of a draw and a 30 % chance of an away victory, confirming the home side as the favourite. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9 % probability. Against similar-strength opponents, Trefelin averages 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded at home, while Ammanford AFC nets 0.25 and concedes 1.25 on the road. The model’s selections reflect a strong edge on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 % with a 9 % edge, Under 6.5 at 98.5 % with a 7 % edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9 % with a 9 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5 % with a 6 % edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1 % with a 7 % edge, Under 5.5 at 95.6 % with an 8 % edge, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.8 % with an 8 % edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise, ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had set the favourite at a 41% chance, but the result was a draw, so the call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which carried a 13.9% probability. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Under 5.5 at 95.6%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.8%. The match saw both sides, Trefelin and Ammanford AFC, come off a draw, each with a recent run of losses and draws.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trefelin win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.82
Edge
-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.90
Dafabet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.54
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Bet365
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Ammanford AFC win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.64
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.10
Dafabet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
William Hil
3.75
Betano
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.97
2.21
1.07
2.88
0.88
vs Stronger (23)
2.61
0.91
2.45
0.64
2.75
1.17
vs Similar (7)
2.43
1.14
1.33
2.67
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.73
1.00
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
1.91
1.09
1.82
0.91
2.00
1.27
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.25
1.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
@ 1.19-3.6%
Under 1.5
27.0%
@ 3.90+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
@ 1.65-9.3%
Under 2.5
53.8%
@ 2.07+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
@ 2.57-10.6%
Under 3.5
75.2%
@ 1.41+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
@ 1.60-4.9%
No
47.7%
@ 2.14+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
No
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.19
William Hil
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%@ 6.64+7.2%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.93+4.2%
0-0
9.3%@ 11.86+5.5%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.59+2.9%
0-1
7.9%@ 11.92+4.2%
2-0
7.6%@ 9.14+2.8%
1-2
7.2%@ 11.20+3.3%
0-2
5.2%@ 20.07+3.0%
Trefelin goals ↓
Ammanford AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.8%
14%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.7%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trefelin goals (down), columns = Ammanford AFC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Trefelin is 0.17 points worse than Ammanford AFC in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 0.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Trefelin is 0.33 goals worse than Ammanford AFC in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Trefelin is 0.50 goals worse than Ammanford AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 2.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trefelin or Draw✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.21
Edge
-5.0%
41%
29%
30%
covers Trefelin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Trefelin or Ammanford AFC✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.20
Edge
-4.9%
41%
29%
30%
covers Trefelin + Ammanford AFC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Draw or Ammanford AFC✓ Hit
59.0%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.86
Edge
+9.9%
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Ammanford AFC
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.86
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trefelin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.9%
@ 1.14-5.4%
Under
25.1%
@ 4.65+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Under
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Trefelin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.1%
@ 1.75-12.6%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.95+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Trefelin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 3.26-12.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.29+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Trefelin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 6.73-8.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.08+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.1%
@ 1.38+1.3%
Under
31.9%
@ 2.77-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.84
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.7%
@ 2.72-2.1%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.39+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.29-3.8%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Betano
6.10
Superbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Ammanford AFC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.00-5.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trefelin, so a minus line means Trefelin give that many goals of a start and Ammanford AFC receive them. At -1, Trefelin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trefelin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trefelin)Actual: Ammanford AFC
Trefelin -2
7.3%
@ 5.57-8.1%
Draw -2
12.5%
@ 4.75-5.6%
Ammanford AFC +2
80.1%
@ 1.30+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
4.70
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Trefelin)Actual: Ammanford AFC
Trefelin -1
19.9%
@ 3.02-9.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 3.58-3.1%
Ammanford AFC +1
59.0%
@ 1.85+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.60
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.00
Away
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Trefelin)Actual: Trefelin
Trefelin +1
70.2%
@ 1.23-1.2%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 5.38+1.0%
Ammanford AFC -1
12.5%
@ 7.15+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Handicap +2 (Trefelin)Actual: Trefelin
Trefelin +2
87.5%
@ 1.07+0.8%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 11.00+0.2%
Ammanford AFC -2
3.9%
@ 19.00-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.07
0.79
1.19
0.44
vs Stronger (23)
1.17
0.57
1.27
0.55
1.08
0.58
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
0.33
1.67
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (22)
0.77
0.41
0.73
0.36
0.82
0.45
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
63.9%
@ 1.29-6.8%
Under 0.5
36.1%
@ 3.12+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.39-5.3%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.49+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.2%
@ 5.19-9.4%
Under 2.5
91.8%
@ 1.10+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.7%
@ 1.70-18.8%
Under
64.3%
@ 2.04+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 4.35-12.3%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.17+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.35
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 9.25-9.0%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.03+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 2.25+6.3%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.57-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 7.30+0.9%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.06-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 11.25-4.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.37
1.14
0.29
1.69
0.44
vs Stronger (23)
1.43
0.35
1.18
0.09
1.67
0.58
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.43
1.00
1.00
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.47
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
1.14
0.68
1.09
0.55
1.18
0.82
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.18-2.4%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 4.21+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.25
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 1.86-11.5%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.84+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 3.65-8.8%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.23+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Superbet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
40.5%
@ 1.48-21.9%
Under
59.5%
@ 2.46+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.37
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 3.21-18.5%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.29+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 7.80-10.6%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.05+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.0%
@ 1.88+4.9%
Under
46.0%
@ 1.81-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.9%
@ 5.40+22.9%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.11-22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 10.00-3.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.17
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
+18.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.1%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.8%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+12.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
1.41
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.20
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-4.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.2%
1.21
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Trefelin and Ammanford AFC have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Ammanford AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Ammanford AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Flint Town United
Holywell