The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance of Cambrian & Clydach taking the victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Trefelin win. The expected total goals sit at 2.8, but the single most likely scoreline is a tidy 1-1, which the model assigns a 12.5% probability. Trefelin, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, while Cambrian & Clydach, on the road, have been prolific, scoring 2.4 on average and conceding only 0.4 against comparable opposition. The team’s recent form shows Trefelin coming off a draw, whereas Cambrian & Clydach are returning from a defeat. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Under 5.5 at 93.6%, Away +2 handicap at 90.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 90.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.2% and Under 4.5 at 84.9%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trefelin win
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach win
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.07
2.29
1.14
2.62
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
2.55
1.05
2.70
0.70
2.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.12
1.25
2.25
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.93
2.00
0.93
2.44
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
2.45
1.15
2.44
1.11
2.45
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.56
1.00
0.75
2.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
Trefelin goals ↓
Cambrian & Clydach goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
9.4%
8.9%
5.0%
2.1%
1
5.7%
13%
9.7%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.7%
6.2%
5.2%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trefelin goals (down), columns = Cambrian & Clydach goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Trefelin is 1.17 points worse than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Trefelin is 1.00 goals worse than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Trefelin is 1.50 goals worse than Cambrian & Clydach in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trefelin or Draw
49.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
50%
covers Trefelin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trefelin or Cambrian & Clydach
73.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
50%
covers Trefelin + Cambrian & Clydach
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cambrian & Clydach
76.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
50%
covers Draw + Cambrian & Clydach
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trefelin over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trefelin, so a minus line means Trefelin give that many goals of a start and Cambrian & Clydach receive them. At -1, Trefelin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trefelin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.5%
Cambrian & Clydach +2
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -1
9.2%
Draw -1
14.1%
Cambrian & Clydach +1
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +1
49.7%
Draw +1
22.5%
Cambrian & Clydach -1
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +2
72.2%
Draw +2
15.7%
Cambrian & Clydach -2
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.59
1.40
0.60
0.83
0.58
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.25
1.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
0.70
1.33
0.78
1.09
0.64
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.25
0.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.21
0.29
1.62
0.56
vs Stronger (22)
1.45
0.45
1.30
0.10
1.58
0.75
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.75
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambrian & Clydach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.40
1.07
0.43
1.44
0.38
vs Stronger (20)
1.25
0.45
1.11
0.33
1.36
0.55
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
0.75
0.75
1.60
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Trefelin and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Cambrian & Clydach have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →