Trefelin’s recent slump of four straight losses has left the home side vulnerable, especially against a team that has been scoring an average of 4.0 goals per match away from home. Penybont, riding a three-game winning streak, is expected to keep the scoreline close, with the model’s most likely result a 1-1 draw at 10.3 %. The expected total of 3.2 goals suggests a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total of 3 goals carries a 22 % probability. The model favours an away win, with a 61 % chance for Penybont, a 22 % chance for a draw, and a 17 % chance of a Trefelin victory. Trefelin’s home form shows 2.45 goals scored and 0.64 conceded against stronger opposition, while Penybont’s away form boasts 4.0 scored and no goals conceded against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Away +2 handicap (93.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.9 %), Under 5.5 (89.9 %), Away over 0.5 goals (87.9 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (83.7 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trefelin win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.07
2.29
1.14
2.62
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
2.55
1.05
2.70
0.70
2.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.12
1.25
2.25
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
0.73
0.80
1.73
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.25
0.67
0.75
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
8.2%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.1%
0-0
5.6%
2-1
5.4%
Trefelin goals ↓
Penybont goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
8.2%
9.2%
6.1%
3.1%
1
4.0%
11%
9.9%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.7%
5.4%
5.4%
3.6%
1.8%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trefelin goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Trefelin is 1.83 points worse than Penybont in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Trefelin is 1.33 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Trefelin is 2.00 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trefelin or Draw
42.4%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Trefelin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trefelin or Penybont
76.6%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Trefelin + Penybont
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Penybont
81.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Draw + Penybont
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trefelin over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 3.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trefelin, so a minus line means Trefelin give that many goals of a start and Penybont receive them. At -1, Trefelin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trefelin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -2
2.1%
Draw -2
5.2%
Penybont +2
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -1
7.3%
Draw -1
11.7%
Penybont +1
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +1
42.4%
Draw +1
22.4%
Penybont -1
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +2
64.8%
Draw +2
17.9%
Penybont -2
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.59
1.40
0.60
0.83
0.58
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.25
1.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.27
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HT
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HT
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HT
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.21
0.29
1.62
0.56
vs Stronger (22)
1.45
0.45
1.30
0.10
1.58
0.75
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.75
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.42
0.50
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.8%
Under 2.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2H
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2H
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Trefelin's squad is €1m less valuable than Penybont's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Holywell