The Pythia model deems an away win the clear favourite, rating The New Saints at 82% against Trefelin’s 5% home advantage and 13% chance of a draw. This preference reflects the Saints’ strong away form, scoring 2.33 goals per game while conceding only 0.67 against weaker opposition, versus Trefelin’s 2.45 goals for and 0.64 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total goals hover at 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, giving the Saints a 13.7% chance of that exact result. Trefelin entered the match after a draw in their last game, while The New Saints are riding a four-game winning streak, adding momentum to the predicted outcome. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.7%, Away +2 handicap at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 goals at 97.9%, Draw or Away at 95.0%, Away +1 handicap at 95.0%, Under 6.5 at 95.0%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 93.3%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trefelin win
4.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints win
82.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.07
2.29
1.14
2.62
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
2.55
1.05
2.70
0.70
2.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.12
1.25
2.25
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.80
2.57
0.79
2.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.48
0.79
2.57
0.79
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.0%
No
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.0%
0-3
12.3%
0-1
8.7%
0-4
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
1-3
7.4%
1-1
6.1%
1-4
5.2%
Trefelin goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
8.7%
13%
12%
8.7%
1
1.4%
6.1%
7.8%
7.4%
5.2%
2
0.6%
1.7%
2.3%
2.2%
1.6%
3
0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trefelin goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Trefelin is 2.50 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Trefelin is 2.33 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Trefelin is 2.33 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (2.83 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trefelin or Draw
17.5%
Avg Implied -
5%
13%
82%
covers Trefelin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trefelin or The New Saints
87.3%
Avg Implied -
5%
13%
82%
covers Trefelin + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or The New Saints
95.2%
Avg Implied -
5%
13%
82%
covers Draw + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trefelin over/under 0.5
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5
Over
94.1%
Under
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 3.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trefelin, so a minus line means Trefelin give that many goals of a start and The New Saints receive them. At -1, Trefelin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trefelin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -2
0.2%
Draw -2
1.0%
The New Saints +2
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin -1
1.2%
Draw -1
3.6%
The New Saints +1
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +1
17.5%
Draw +1
19.0%
The New Saints -1
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trefelin)
Trefelin +2
36.5%
Draw +2
22.1%
The New Saints -2
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.59
1.40
0.60
0.83
0.58
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.25
1.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
0.93
0.36
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.03
0.31
0.93
0.36
1.13
0.27
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.21
0.29
1.62
0.56
vs Stronger (22)
1.45
0.45
1.30
0.10
1.58
0.75
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.75
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.50
1.64
0.43
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.45
0.48
1.64
0.43
1.27
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Trefelin's squad is €2m less valuable than The New Saints's (€0m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin's attack is €1m less valuable than The New Saints's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Trefelin and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Trefelin and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Holywell