Trepça'89 are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 69 % chance of a home win and a 21 % chance of a draw, leaving only 10 % for Rilindja 1974 to triumph. The prediction hinges on Trepça'89’s strong home form - they average 2.33 goals scored and concede only 0.44 against weaker opponents - while Rilindja’s away record is poor, with just 0.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring match, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Trepça'89, with a 13.4 % probability. The model’s single selection is “Over 1.5”, with a 77.8 % chance of hitting that outcome. The match is poised to favour the home side, and the data backs a 2-0 result as the most probable.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s forecast proved spot on as Trepça'89 secured a decisive 7-1 victory over Rilindja 1974, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The model had picked a home win with a 69 % probability, and that call was correct. The suggested selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.8 % chance, also hit, as the match produced seven goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 (13.4 %) and the predicted total of 2 goals (25 % probability) were not realised, but the overall outcome matched the model’s expectations. The final result was a home win, confirming the model’s confidence in Trepça'89’s dominance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trepça'89 win✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trepça'89
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.97
2.33
0.87
1.73
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (9)
2.22
1.22
3.00
2.25
1.60
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.18
0.88
2.33
0.44
2.00
1.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.57
1.20
1.33
0.67
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
1.25
1.75
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.38
1.20
1.00
0.73
1.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%
1-0
11.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.4%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.9%
Trepça'89 goals ↓
Rilindja 1974 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
3.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
1
12%
9.8%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.4%
6.6%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.9%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trepça'89 goals (down), columns = Rilindja 1974 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Trepça'89 is 1.12 points better than Rilindja 1974 in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Trepça'89 is 1.12 goals better than Rilindja 1974 in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Trepça'89 is 0.82 goals better than Rilindja 1974 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trepça'89
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.86
0.43
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
1.00
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.47
0.88
0.25
0.89
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.35
0.69
0.50
0.64
0.17
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.12
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trepça'89
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.50
0.43
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.67
1.75
1.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.41
1.50
0.12
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.92
0.64
0.86
0.42
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.50
0.60
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
42% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vushtrria
Feronikeli
Liria Prizren
Dinamo Ferizaj
Vëllaznimi
Ramiz Sadiku
Suhareka
Tefik Canga
2 Korriku
FC Besa Peja
Vjosa
Trepça Mitrovicë
Kika
Istogu
KEK-u
Prizreni