Trepça Mitrovicë face FC Besa Peja in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are close: 39% for a home victory, 26% for a draw, and 36% for an away triumph. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most probable total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% probability. Trepça’s home form shows an average of 1.17 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Besa’s away record averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.36 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (90.3%), Over 1.5 (83.0%), Home +2 handicap (82.4%), and Away under 2.5 goals (80.2%). The recent form shows Trepça struggling after two straight defeats, while Besa has recovered from a similar slump, adding to the uncertainty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trepça Mitrovicë win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.10
1.13
2.07
1.13
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
1.50
3.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.96
1.17
1.92
1.45
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.20
1.00
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.00
0.75
1.50
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.09
1.36
0.82
1.00
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
2-0
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
Trepça Mitrovicë goals ↓
FC Besa Peja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.6%
5.1%
2.6%
1.0%
1
5.9%
12%
8.2%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.6%
6.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3
3.0%
4.6%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (down), columns = FC Besa Peja goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.06 points worse than FC Besa Peja in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.26 goals better than FC Besa Peja in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.25 goals worse than FC Besa Peja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trepça Mitrovicë or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Trepça Mitrovicë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë or FC Besa Peja
74.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Trepça Mitrovicë + FC Besa Peja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Besa Peja
61.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Draw + FC Besa Peja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trepça Mitrovicë, so a minus line means Trepça Mitrovicë give that many goals of a start and FC Besa Peja receive them. At -1, Trepça Mitrovicë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trepça Mitrovicë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trepça Mitrovicë)
Trepça Mitrovicë -2
8.0%
Draw -2
11.8%
FC Besa Peja +2
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trepça Mitrovicë)
Trepça Mitrovicë -1
19.8%
Draw -1
18.8%
FC Besa Peja +1
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trepça Mitrovicë)
Trepça Mitrovicë +1
64.5%
Draw +1
17.9%
FC Besa Peja -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trepça Mitrovicë)
Trepça Mitrovicë +2
82.4%
Draw +2
10.8%
FC Besa Peja -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.71
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
-
-
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.71
0.69
0.77
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.60
0.36
0.29
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.79
0.93
0.69
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
-
-
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.08
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.71
0.57
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →