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Trepça Mitrovicë vs Suhareka Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Trepça Mitrovicë
Trepça Mitrovicë
Vs
72%
19%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suhareka
Suhareka
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Trepça Mitrovicë are clear favourites, their 72% home-win probability reflecting a strong 3.67 average goals scored and only 0.67 conceded at home against similar opposition. The model picks a home win, a 2-0 scoreline with 13.9% probability, and an expected total of 2.9 goals, the most likely total being 2 at 24%. Suhareka, averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded away, shows a weaker offensive threat and a recent win-heavy run that ends with a 2-1 victory. The venue advantage for Trepça Mitrovicë is decisive, as the model’s over-1.5 selection carries a 78.9% chance, while the home-win selection itself has a 72.4% probability. The draw and away-win chances sit at 19% and 9% respectively. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (78.9%) and Home win (72.4%), with the edge for the former highlighted.

Results analysis

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Trepça Mitrovicë failed to deliver, with Suhareka snatching a 2-0 away victory. The model had picked a home win with a 72.4% probability, but that call missed. The model’s other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, reflecting the 78.9% chance of a goal-rich match. Suhareka’s win extended their recent form streak, while Trepça’s run of two straight defeats left them on a low note. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away side’s triumph, proving the model’s favourite was wrong and the over-goals pick correct.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trepça Mitrovicë win✗ Miss
72.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suhareka win✓ Hit
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-741W30W11D00D12L71W32WH·IST16/08A·PRI23/08H·TRE27/08H·RAM30/08A·VËL06/09H·FC 13/09A·KIK17/09
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.711.003.000.752.331.33
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (5)3.400.803.670.673.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SuharekaSuhareka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W21W22D51W02L03L02L42W01L31WH·LLA11/05A·MAL17/05H·BAL25/05H·VJO16/08A·KEK23/08H·VUS27/08A·FER30/08H·2 K06/09A·IST13/09H·PRI17/09← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.801.881.690.931.93
vs Stronger (5)0.802.201.002.000.502.50
vs Similar (22)1.641.682.181.551.091.82
vs Weaker (3)1.002.001.502.000.002.00
Clean sheet %7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%015%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.9%
1-0
11.7%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
4-0
5.7%
Trepça Mitrovicë goals ↓
Suhareka goals →
01234
06.5%2.9%1.2%0.3%0.0%
112%9.0%2.7%0.6%0.1%
214%9.1%3.0%0.6%0.1%
310%6.7%2.2%0.5%0.1%
45.7%3.7%1.2%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (down), columns = Suhareka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.29 points worse than Suhareka in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.32 goals worse than Suhareka in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Liria Prizren
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Suhareka
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Trepça Mitrovicë is 0.03 goals worse than Suhareka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D00D11D20W20WH·IST16/08H·TRE27/08H·RAM30/08A·VËL06/09H·FC 13/09A·KIK17/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.331.500.251.500.50
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (4)1.750.001.670.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SuharekaSuhareka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W21W00D11D01L01L21W00D20WH·FER04/05A·FER07/05H·LLA11/05A·MAL17/05H·BAL25/05H·VUS27/08A·FER30/08H·2 K06/09A·IST13/09H·PRI17/09← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.940.560.430.79
vs Stronger (7)0.431.140.751.000.001.33
vs Similar (21)0.760.521.000.400.550.64
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.50--
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D00D01L51W12LH·IST16/08H·TRE27/08H·RAM30/08A·VËL06/09H·FC 13/09A·KIK17/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.831.500.500.501.50
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (4)1.751.002.000.671.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SuharekaSuhareka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D21W21W11D02L01L21W01L11DH·FER04/05A·FER07/05H·LLA11/05A·MAL17/05H·BAL25/05H·VUS27/08A·FER30/08H·2 K06/09A·IST13/09H·PRI17/09← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.230.691.190.641.29
vs Stronger (7)0.571.290.251.001.001.67
vs Similar (21)0.711.190.901.200.551.18
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.501.50--
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.9%-------✓ Hit
Home win72.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (14)
€3m
VUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (7)
€1m
VUS (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (2)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TM wins
0
Draws
0
SUH wins

Head-to-head

Trepça Mitrovicë vs Suhareka · H/A from TM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/25AKika Vs TM2-3
13/09/25HTM Vs FC Besa Peja7-1
06/09/25AVëllaznimi Vs TM2-1
30/08/25HTM Vs Ramiz Sadiku0-0
27/08/25HTM Vs Trepça'891-1
23/08/25APrizreni Vs TM0-3
16/08/25HTM Vs Istogu4-1

SuharekaSuhareka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/25HSUH Vs Prizreni3-1
13/09/25AIstogu Vs SUH1-0
06/09/25HSUH Vs 2 Korriku4-2
30/08/25AFeronikeli Vs SUH2-0
27/08/25HSUH Vs Vushtrria0-3
23/08/25AKEK-u Vs SUH2-0
16/08/25HSUH Vs Vjosa5-1
25/05/25HSUH Vs Ballkani2-2
17/05/25AMalisheva Vs SUH1-2
11/05/25HSUH Vs Llapi4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trepça Mitrovicë
Trepça Mitrovicë
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW2.00
HomeWDDW2.00
AwayWLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%50%67%
AVG goals3.713.753.67
Over 1.5 %86%75%100%
Over 2.5 %71%50%100%
Over 3.5 %43%50%33%
Scored2.713.002.33
Conceded1.000.751.33
BTTS71%75%67%
Clean Sheet29%25%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Suhareka
Suhareka
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.21
HomeDWLWW1.59
AwayWWLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%50%19%
AVG goals3.143.552.71
Over 1.5 %88%95%81%
Over 2.5 %70%86%52%
Over 3.5 %40%45%33%
Scored1.421.910.90
Conceded1.721.641.81
BTTS63%73%52%
Clean Sheet12%14%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VushtrriaVushtrria3475
65%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
74%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.8
-
2FeronikeliFeronikeli3474
65%
2.2
5922+37
2.4
71%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.70.6
-
3Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren3471
62%
2.1
6029+31
2.6
65%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
4Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj3471
65%
2.1
6139+22
2.9
74%
53%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.1
-
5TrepçaTrepça'893470
59%
2.1
7233+39
3.1
82%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
6VëllaznimiVëllaznimi3470
62%
2.1
5832+26
2.6
71%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
7Ramiz SadikuRamiz Sadiku3450
41%
1.5
3929+10
2.0
59%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
8SuharekaSuhareka3444
38%
1.3
6061-1
3.6
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Tefik CangaTefik Canga3440
35%
1.2
4854-6
3.0
79%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
102 Korriku2 Korriku3439
32%
1.1
5264-12
3.4
91%
68%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.9
-
11FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja3335
27%
1.1
3952-13
2.8
70%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
12VjosaVjosa3435
26%
1.0
3961-22
2.9
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
13Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë3434
26%
1.0
4962-13
3.3
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
14KikaKika3433
26%
1.0
2543-18
2.0
59%
29%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
15IstoguIstogu3432
21%
0.9
4760-13
3.1
74%
50%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
16Rilindja 1974Rilindja 19743432
24%
0.9
3461-27
2.8
82%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
17KEK-uKEK-u3321
12%
0.6
2563-38
2.7
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
18PrizreniPrizreni3420
9%
0.6
2866-38
2.8
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
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Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →

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