The contest between Třinec and Arsenal Česká Lípa is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 33%, a draw at 29% and an away victory at 37%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. Třinec, coming off a 1-4 loss to Baník Ostrava II, has shown a mixed home form (LWDDW) and is likely to struggle to score against Arsenal’s away strength. Arsenal, on a two-game winning streak, will look to keep the scoreline tight, conceding few goals on the road.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Under 4.5 (88.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.0%) and Away +2 handicap (85.1%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other outcome is presented as a winner.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Třinec win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa win
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Třinec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.60
1.23
1.77
1.59
1.47
vs Stronger (29)
1.24
1.66
1.23
1.77
1.25
1.56
vs Similar (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Česká Lípa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.55
1.82
1.60
1.80
1.50
1.83
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
1.82
1.60
1.80
1.50
1.83
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
Třinec goals ↓
Arsenal Česká Lípa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.9%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.2%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.8%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Třinec goals (down), columns = Arsenal Česká Lípa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Třinec is 0.67 points worse than Arsenal Česká Lípa in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Třinec is 0.50 goals worse than Arsenal Česká Lípa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Třinec is 0.33 goals better than Arsenal Česká Lípa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Třinec or Draw
62.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Třinec + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Třinec or Arsenal Česká Lípa
70.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Třinec + Arsenal Česká Lípa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
66.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Arsenal Česká Lípa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Třinec over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 0.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 1.5
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 2.5
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Třinec, so a minus line means Třinec give that many goals of a start and Arsenal Česká Lípa receive them. At -1, Třinec must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Třinec win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Třinec)
Třinec -2
5.0%
Draw -2
9.9%
Arsenal Česká Lípa +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Třinec)
Třinec -1
14.9%
Draw -1
18.6%
Arsenal Česká Lípa +1
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Třinec)
Třinec +1
62.5%
Draw +1
19.9%
Arsenal Česká Lípa -1
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Třinec)
Třinec +2
82.5%
Draw +2
11.3%
Arsenal Česká Lípa -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Třinec
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.31
0.92
0.82
0.59
vs Stronger (29)
0.52
0.76
0.31
0.92
0.69
0.62
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Česká Lípa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Třinec over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Třinec
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.92
0.85
0.76
0.88
vs Stronger (29)
0.72
0.90
0.92
0.85
0.56
0.94
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Česká Lípa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.82
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.83
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Třinec over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Česká Lípa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Třinec and Arsenal Česká Lípa have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Třinec and Arsenal Česká Lípa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Třinec and Arsenal Česká Lípa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Třinec and Arsenal Česká Lípa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
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Ústí nad Labem
Slavia Praha II
Karviná
Příbram
Táborsko
Dukla Praha
Kladno
Baník Ostrava II
Vysočina Jihlava
Vlašim
Opava
Prostějov
Hanácká
Viktoria Žižkov