Tromsø are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 59% chance of triumph, 24% for a draw and 17% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.2% chance. Tromsø, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.82 goals scored and 0.91 conceded, while Sarpsborg 08 FF on the road averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6% with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.0% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8% with a 6% edge, Home +2 handicap at 93.7% with a 3% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.0% with a 4% edge. Tromsø’s recent draw against Brighton and Sarpsborg 08 FF’s win over Sparta Sarpsborg set the stage for a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Tromsø, did not materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 59% probability for a Tromsø victory. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result, confirming the unexpected stalemate. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.4%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.1%, Home +2 handicap hit at 93.7%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 92.3%. Tromsø’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Sarpsborg 08 FF’s similar draw-to-draw start framed an evenly matched contest that defied the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tromso win✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied 55.8% · @ 1.68
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Draw✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.98
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.24
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF win✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.52
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Dafabet
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tromso
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.27
1.73
0.80
1.93
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.06
1.82
0.91
1.71
1.29
vs Weaker (9)
2.56
1.11
2.00
0.67
2.83
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.70
1.31
1.38
1.53
1.94
vs Stronger (9)
1.78
1.78
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.75
1.00
1.14
1.38
2.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tromso) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.1%
@ 1.16-0.2%
Under 1.5
19.9%
@ 4.75+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.02
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.57-3.5%
Under 2.5
43.8%
@ 2.33+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
@ 2.39-5.1%
Under 3.5
66.2%
@ 1.52+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
@ 1.56-4.5%
No
45.3%
@ 2.27+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 7.39+5.1%
2-0
10.1%@ 9.00+5.1%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.62+4.0%
1-0
9.4%@ 8.54+4.1%
3-0
6.6%@ 13.29+3.2%
3-1
6.5%@ 11.36+2.5%
0-0 ✓
6.3%@ 13.66+3.0%
1-2
5.0%@ 13.02+1.5%
Tromso goals ↓
Sarpsborg 08 FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.2%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.4%
11%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.6%
6.5%
3.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tromso goals (down), columns = Sarpsborg 08 FF goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Tromso is 0.67 points better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Tromso is 0.78 goals better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Tromso is 0.17 goals better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Tromso is 4.3 percentage points better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of average possession (49% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tromso
For 4.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sarpsborg 08 FF
For 4.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tromso
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.5
3.0
3.2
2.8
24.1
23.3
24.8
vs Stronger (5)
10.6
13.0
9.0
2.4
4.0
1.3
20.2
22.5
18.7
vs Similar (29)
8.6
8.1
9.2
3.4
3.4
3.3
25.1
24.7
25.6
vs Weaker (16)
8.7
11.0
7.2
2.4
2.3
2.4
23.5
20.0
25.9
% over line
34%
35%
33%
40%
40%
40%
68%
57%
79%
% under line
66%
65%
67%
60%
60%
60%
32%
43%
21%
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.0
11.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
22.8
23.1
22.4
vs Stronger (13)
13.3
13.6
13.0
1.7
1.2
2.4
18.8
17.6
20.6
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.0
11.1
3.2
3.7
2.9
24.1
25.6
22.7
vs Weaker (3)
16.5
20.0
13.0
2.3
2.0
2.5
28.5
30.0
27.0
% over line
62%
57%
67%
38%
35%
41%
55%
62%
48%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
62%
65%
59%
45%
38%
52%
This opponent (Tromso) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
12.0
Aalesund
11.8
Viking
11.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.3
Rosenborg
11.2
Brann
11.0
Sandefjord
10.9
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Lillestrom
10.5
Ham-Kam
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.2
Fredrikstad
10.0
Start
8.9
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Tromso
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Molde
4.2
Viking
4.2
Brann
4.2
Lillestrom
4.1
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
3.9
Start
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Tromso
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.2
Viking
24.7
Rosenborg
24.5
Valerenga
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Brann
23.9
Start
23.6
Molde
23.3
Ham-Kam
23.1
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
21.9
KFUM Oslo
21.7
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
21.1
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.1%
@ 1.64+8.7%
Under 9.5
34.9%
@ 2.12-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Under
Marathonbet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.2%
Under 21.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tromso or Draw✓ Hit
82.6%
Avg Implied 78.9% · @ 1.19
Edge
+3.8%
59%
24%
17%
covers Tromso + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Tromso or Sarpsborg 08 FF✗ Miss
76.4%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-0.7%
59%
24%
17%
covers Tromso + Sarpsborg 08 FF
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.12
Edge
-3.0%
59%
24%
17%
covers Draw + Sarpsborg 08 FF
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Unibet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tromso over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.8%
@ 1.10+1.4%
Under
14.2%
@ 5.99-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.35
Superbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Tromso over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.1%
@ 1.58-0.9%
Under
41.9%
@ 2.27+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Tromso over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
@ 2.82-1.9%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.39+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
1xBet
2.91
Marathonbet
2.91
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Tromso over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.85-2.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.5%
@ 1.38-4.5%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.81+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.7%
@ 2.90-6.4%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.37+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.34-5.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.06+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 18.42-3.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tromso, so a minus line means Tromso give that many goals of a start and Sarpsborg 08 FF receive them. At -1, Tromso must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tromso win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tromso)Actual: Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso -2
17.6%
@ 5.10-0.0%
Draw -2
18.4%
@ 4.79-0.3%
Sarpsborg 08 FF +2
64.0%
@ 1.41+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
4.70
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Away
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Handicap -1 (Tromso)Actual: Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso -1
36.0%
@ 2.67+2.5%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 3.69-1.1%
Sarpsborg 08 FF +1
41.0%
@ 2.11-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.67
Superbet
2.57
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Handicap +1 (Tromso)Actual: Tromso
Tromso +1
82.6%
@ 1.18+7.2%
Draw +1
11.1%
@ 6.02-3.7%
Sarpsborg 08 FF -1
6.3%
@ 9.08-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Tromso)Actual: Tromso
Tromso +2
93.7%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Draw +2
4.6%
@ 14.00-2.1%
Sarpsborg 08 FF -2
1.7%
@ 26.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tromso
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.27
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.44
1.00
0.36
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.75
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tromso) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.26-0.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.48+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
William Hil
3.60
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.27-2.1%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.58+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
Betfair
2.25
Under
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.26-3.2%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.12+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
BetVictor
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tromso over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
59.5%
@ 1.58+0.6%
Under
40.5%
@ 2.26-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Tromso over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 3.86-1.0%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.22+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Tromso over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.37-5.0%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.8%
@ 2.33-4.0%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.54+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Unibet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 7.96-3.5%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
Superbet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 32.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tromso
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.80
0.53
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.38
0.69
0.53
1.06
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.78
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.71
0.38
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tromso) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.3%
@ 1.15+0.7%
Under 0.5
18.7%
@ 4.80-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Betano
4.85
Superbet
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.4%
@ 1.79-2.5%
Under 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.94+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Betano
2.02
Unibet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.6%
@ 3.42-3.5%
Under 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.27+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tromso over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
70.9%
@ 1.40+4.6%
Under
29.1%
@ 2.76-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Tromso over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 2.88-1.8%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.36+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Tromso over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 6.90-4.3%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.8%
@ 1.92-5.4%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.79+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.74-5.4%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.10+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
5.90
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.08-3.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.6%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.6%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.4%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.1%
1.35
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.37
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.9%
1.40
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
-
+4.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tromso
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jens Hjertø-Dahl36%
Heine Asen Larsen35%
Ieltsin Camões33%
Troy Nyhammer19%
Alexander Warneryd18%
Daniel Braut12%
Sander Innvær7%
Vetle Skjaervik6%
Lars Olden Larsen5%
Isak Vadebu5%
Ruben Jenssen5%
David Edvardsson5%
Jakob Haugaard0%
Leo Cornic0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Leon Hien0%
Isak Dahlqvist0%
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal0%
Mathias Tonnessen0%
Sigurd Prestmo0%
Abubacarr Kinteh0%
Jesper Andreas Grundt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leon Hien33%
Leo Cornic20%
David Edvardsson15%
Heine Asen Larsen15%
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal13%
Mathias Tonnessen12%
Alexander Warneryd12%
Lars Olden Larsen11%
Sander Innvær7%
Jens Hjertø-Dahl7%
Troy Nyhammer6%
Isak Vadebu5%
Jakob Haugaard0%
Ruben Jenssen0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Vetle Skjaervik0%
Isak Dahlqvist0%
Daniel Braut0%
Ieltsin Camões0%
Sigurd Prestmo0%
Abubacarr Kinteh0%
Jesper Andreas Grundt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Jenssen25%
Troy Nyhammer19%
Isak Dahlqvist17%
David Edvardsson15%
Jens Hjertø-Dahl14%
Leo Cornic13%
Lars Olden Larsen11%
Heine Asen Larsen10%
Sander Innvær7%
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal7%
Vetle Skjaervik6%
Daniel Braut6%
Alexander Warneryd6%
Jakob Haugaard5%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Leon Hien0%
Isak Vadebu0%
Mathias Tonnessen0%
Ieltsin Camões0%
Sigurd Prestmo0%
Abubacarr Kinteh0%
Jesper Andreas Grundt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Heine Asen Larsen30%
Jens Hjertø-Dahl21%
Lars Olden Larsen16%
Leo Cornic13%
Alexander Warneryd12%
Abubacarr Kinteh11%
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal7%
Troy Nyhammer6%
Daniel Braut6%
Jakob Haugaard0%
Ruben Jenssen0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Leon Hien0%
David Edvardsson0%
Vetle Skjaervik0%
Isak Dahlqvist0%
Isak Vadebu0%
Sander Innvær0%
Mathias Tonnessen0%
Ieltsin Camões0%
Sigurd Prestmo0%
Jesper Andreas Grundt0%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Karlsbakk33%
Sondre Sörli17%
Andreas Hansen17%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen11%
Aimar Sher6%
Sander Christiansen6%
Claus Niyukuri6%
Anders Hiim6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Bjorn Utvik0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Noa Williams0%
Leander Øy0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Michael Opoku0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mamour Ndiaye40%
Bjorn Utvik24%
Menno Koch22%
Olaus Skarsem17%
Jo Inge Berget12%
Aimar Sher12%
Sander Christiansen12%
Claus Niyukuri12%
Magnar Odegaard11%
Daniel Karlsbakk11%
Anders Hiim11%
Eirik Wichne6%
Sondre Sörli6%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Marius Lode0%
Noa Williams0%
Leander Øy0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen0%
Michael Opoku0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Claus Niyukuri24%
Sondre Sörli17%
Michael Opoku17%
Sander Christiansen6%
Bjorn Utvik6%
Noa Williams6%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Aimar Sher0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Daniel Karlsbakk0%
Leander Øy0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Anders Hiim0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Karlsbakk17%
Michael Opoku17%
Aimar Sher6%
Bjorn Utvik6%
Sondre Sörli6%
Andreas Hansen6%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Noa Williams0%
Sander Christiansen0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Leander Øy0%
Anders Hiim0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Tromso's squad is €1m less valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€15m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Tromso's attack is €5m less valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€4m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Tromso's defence is €4m more valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€8m vs €4m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
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Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Molde
Brann
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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