The model favours an away win, with Lask Linz expected to edge TSV Hartberg 1-2. The match is projected to average 2.7 goals, with a 26% chance of exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.1% probability. TSV Hartberg, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Lask Linz, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. Home win probability stands at 26%, draw at 27%, and away win at 46%. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 82.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.4%, Over 1.5 at 76.5%, Under 3.5 at 71.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 73.9%. The recent form shows Hartberg on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Ried, while Linz rides a three-game winning run following a 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
Results analysis
The win extends TSV Hartbergās two-game winning streak, while Lask Linz continued a three-game run. The modelās favourite, an away win, was correct as Lask Linz edged Hartberg 1-2. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 46%. The modelās selection of the final score 1-2 hit, as did the 2-goal total prediction, which was the most likely outcome at 26%. The suggested picks were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards (82.7%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (82.4%) hit, Over 1.5 (76.5%) hit, Under 3.5 (71.1%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (70.3%) hit, while Under 11.5 corners (73.9%) missed. The modelās overall performance was strong, with most selections realised.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
TSV Hartberg winā Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawā Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz winā Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
TSV Hartberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.43
1.29
1.43
2.25
1.44
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
1.86
0.71
2.00
1.57
1.71
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.07
1.86
0.86
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
11.00
1.00
-
-
11.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.23
1.77
1.00
1.00
1.41
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.14
2.00
0.67
0.75
3.25
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.18
2.20
1.20
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.75
1.20
1.00
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2 ā
9.4%
0-1
9.2%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.3%
TSV Hartberg goals ↓
Lask Linz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.2%
8.2%
4.3%
1.7%
1
6.4%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.3%
6.8%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.6%
2.6%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TSV Hartberg goals (down), columns = Lask Linz goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Sturm Graz
1.97
Austria Vienna
1.88
Red Bull Salzburg
1.78
Wolfsberger AC
1.72
Lask Linz
1.71
Rapid Vienna
1.38
TSV Hartberg
1.33
FC BW Linz
1.19
WSG Wattens
0.94
Grazer AK
0.88
Austria Klagenfurt
0.84
SCR Altach
0.81
TSV Hartberg is 0.38 points worse than Lask Linz in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.71).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Sturm Graz
2.06
Wolfsberger AC
1.88
Red Bull Salzburg
1.66
Lask Linz
1.60
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
TSV Hartberg
1.21
FC BW Linz
1.16
WSG Wattens
1.09
Grazer AK
1.06
Austria Klagenfurt
1.03
SCR Altach
0.91
TSV Hartberg is 0.39 goals worse than Lask Linz in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.60).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Austria Vienna
1.00
Red Bull Salzburg
1.12
Lask Linz
1.14
Wolfsberger AC
1.19
Sturm Graz
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.27
Rapid Vienna
1.32
FC BW Linz
1.41
SCR Altach
1.44
WSG Wattens
1.56
Grazer AK
1.69
Austria Klagenfurt
2.19
TSV Hartberg is 0.13 goals worse than Lask Linz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.14).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
62%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
57%
Austria Vienna
54%
Sturm Graz
52%
TSV Hartberg
50%
SCR Altach
47%
Wolfsberger AC
46%
WSG Wattens
45%
Austria Klagenfurt
45%
FC BW Linz
41%
Grazer AK
41%
TSV Hartberg is 8.2 percentage points worse than Lask Linz in terms of average possession (50% vs 58%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.64
0.86
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.53
0.86
0.57
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.92
0.46
0.47
0.76
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.86
1.33
0.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
1.20
0.40
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
0.64
0.57
1.38
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.29
0.86
0.71
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.29
1.12
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
1.00
-
-
8.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.85
0.54
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.67
0.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.80
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.25
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lask Linz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
TSV Hartberg's squad is €34m less valuable than Lask Linz's (€10m vs €44m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's attack is €11m less valuable than Lask Linz's (€3m vs €13m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
TSV Hartberg's midfield is €8m less valuable than Lask Linz's (€3m vs €11m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's defence is €15m less valuable than Lask Linz's (€5m vs €20m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →