This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.03
1.43
1.00
1.94
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.40
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.78
0.78
1.38
0.62
2.10
0.90
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.71
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-0 ✓
5.7%
TSV Hartberg goals ↓
Ried goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.2%
12%
8.2%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.6%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.0%
4.5%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TSV Hartberg goals (down), columns = Ried goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
TSV Hartberg
1.31
SCR Altach
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Grazer AK
1.16
FC BW Linz
0.91
TSV Hartberg is 0.06 points worse than Ried in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
FC BW Linz
1.16
SCR Altach
1.12
TSV Hartberg is 0.05 goals better than Ried in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
FC BW Linz
1.53
Austria Vienna
1.56
WSG Wattens
1.62
TSV Hartberg is 0.09 goals better than Ried in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
FC BW Linz
50%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
TSV Hartberg is 10.3 percentage points worse than Ried in terms of average possession (39% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
TSV Hartberg
For 2.4 · Against 6.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
For 3.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
TSV Hartberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
9.9
4.5
4.9
4.2
22.4
22.8
22.1
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
7.3
10.1
5.3
6.2
4.6
22.6
22.7
22.6
vs Similar (37)
9.7
9.5
9.8
4.2
4.2
4.1
22.3
22.9
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
44%
44%
66%
83%
56%
60%
72%
52%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
34%
17%
44%
40%
28%
48%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.8
7.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
22.4
23.5
21.4
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
12.3
6.5
4.2
4.0
4.5
21.4
22.0
20.5
vs Similar (29)
7.0
6.8
7.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
22.1
22.6
21.7
vs Weaker (15)
8.8
7.5
9.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
23.9
27.5
21.0
% over line
24%
26%
21%
60%
58%
62%
63%
68%
58%
% under line
76%
74%
79%
40%
42%
38%
37%
32%
42%
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rapid Vienna
10.9
Austria Vienna
10.5
WSG Wattens
10.0
TSV Hartberg
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.6
Wolfsberger AC
9.6
Lask Linz
9.6
Sturm Graz
9.4
FC BW Linz
9.3
Grazer AK
9.2
SCR Altach
8.6
Ried
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Grazer AK
5.7
SCR Altach
5.7
Austria Vienna
5.4
TSV Hartberg
5.0
Wolfsberger AC
4.9
Ried
4.7
Rapid Vienna
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.7
WSG Wattens
4.6
Sturm Graz
4.6
Lask Linz
4.4
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SCR Altach
25.4
Sturm Graz
24.1
Austria Vienna
23.5
Rapid Vienna
23.5
Grazer AK
23.4
Ried
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.9
TSV Hartberg
22.4
FC BW Linz
22.3
WSG Wattens
22.1
Lask Linz
21.3
Red Bull Salzburg
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
31.0%
Under 9.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.1%
Under 21.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.56
0.78
0.62
0.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.43
0.83
0.83
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.79
0.57
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.22
0.62
0.12
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
1.33
0.33
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.89
0.67
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.74
1.17
0.67
0.94
0.76
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.64
0.43
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.56
0.75
0.50
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
TSV Hartberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elias Havel43%
Lukas Fridrikas15%
Luca Pazourek15%
Jed Drew15%
Marco Hoffmann13%
Fabian Wilfinger10%
Patrik Mijić8%
Jurgen Heil7%
Lukas Spendlhofer7%
Dominik Prokop7%
Maximilian Fillafer7%
Dominic Vincze4%
Damjan Kovačević4%
Maximilian Hennig4%
Tobias Kainz3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian Gölles0%
Youba Diarra0%
Benjamin Markuš0%
Tom Hülsmann0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tobias Kainz20%
Maximilian Fillafer20%
Tom Hülsmann20%
Youba Diarra19%
Jurgen Heil19%
Lukas Spendlhofer14%
Dominik Prokop14%
Konstantin Schopp14%
Marco Hoffmann13%
Musibau Aziz12%
Lukas Fridrikas12%
Habib Anas Coulibaly11%
Maximilian Hennig11%
Elias Havel10%
Benjamin Markuš9%
Dominic Vincze8%
Fabian Wilfinger6%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian Gölles0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Jed Drew0%
Damjan Kovačević0%
David Korherr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tobias Kainz17%
Jed Drew15%
Maximilian Hennig14%
Youba Diarra12%
Elias Havel10%
Patrik Mijić8%
Jurgen Heil7%
Tom Hülsmann7%
Habib Anas Coulibaly6%
Damjan Kovačević4%
Lukas Fridrikas4%
Lukas Spendlhofer4%
Fabian Wilfinger3%
Benjamin Markuš3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian Gölles0%
Dominik Prokop0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Dominic Vincze0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Marco Hoffmann0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elias Havel30%
Jed Drew8%
Lukas Fridrikas4%
Lukas Spendlhofer4%
Tobias Kainz3%
Marco Hoffmann3%
Benjamin Markuš3%
Ammar Helac0%
Julian Gölles0%
Dominik Prokop0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Youba Diarra0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Maximilian Fillafer0%
Tom Hülsmann0%
Julian Halwachs0%
Dominic Vincze0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Fabian Wilfinger0%
Maximilian Hennig0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
Damjan Kovačević0%
David Korherr0%
Musibau Aziz0%
Ried
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kingstone Mutandwa34%
Mark Große15%
Peter Kiedl15%
Ante Bajić13%
Antonio Van Wyk10%
Philipp Pomer9%
Nikki Havenaar9%
Oliver Steurer6%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Joris Boguo4%
Michael Sollbauer0%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Jonas Mayer0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Yussef Nasrawe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Bajić32%
Christopher Wernitznig20%
Nicolas Bajlicz20%
Peter Kiedl20%
Philipp Pomer19%
Kingstone Mutandwa19%
Martin Rasner19%
Michael Sollbauer18%
Joris Boguo16%
Mark Große15%
Jonas Mayer14%
Saliou Sané12%
Yussef Nasrawe12%
Nikki Havenaar12%
Oliver Steurer11%
Andreas Leitner9%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Yusuf Maart3%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Antonio Van Wyk0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ante Bajić16%
Philipp Pomer12%
Antonio Van Wyk10%
Peter Kiedl10%
Mark Große8%
Kingstone Mutandwa6%
Yussef Nasrawe6%
Nikki Havenaar6%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Jonas Mayer3%
Michael Sollbauer3%
Andreas Leitner3%
Oliver Steurer3%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kingstone Mutandwa38%
Mark Große15%
Antonio Van Wyk7%
Ante Bajić6%
Yussef Nasrawe6%
Peter Kiedl5%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Michael Sollbauer0%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Nikki Havenaar0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Philipp Pomer0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Jonas Mayer0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
TSV Hartberg's squad is €3m more valuable than Ried's (€10m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
TSV Hartberg and Ried have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
TSV Hartberg and Ried have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's defence is €2m more valuable than Ried's (€5m vs €3m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
SCR Altach
Wolfsberger AC
WSG Wattens
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz