The match between TSV Hartberg and Ried sits on a knife-edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities are 31% and 41% respectively, while a draw sits at 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% probability. Hartberg, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 0.75 conceded, whereas Ried, on the road, averages 0.62 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8% with a 3% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 3% edge). Both sides enter the fixture on a win, having recently beaten SCR Altach and Grazer AK respectively.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Ried at 42%, failed to materialise as TSV Hartberg secured a 3-2 home victory, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The match produced a total of five goals, a hit on the model’s Under 7.5 selection (99.5%) and on all other under-goals picks: Under 6.5 (98.3%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8%) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%). Each probability was expressed as a percentage and every pick was reported once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
TSV Hartberg win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.80
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
Pinnacle
2.86
Dafabet
2.85
Bet365
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.36
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Unibet
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Ried win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied 38.9% · @ 2.40
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.50
Dafabet
2.47
Bet365
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
TSV Hartberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.07
1.60
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.60
1.14
2.57
1.12
0.75
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.75
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.23
1.62
0.88
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.56
1.60
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.11
1.64
0.82
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
@ 1.28+7.2%
Under 1.5
20.2%
@ 3.39-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.67
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.93+6.8%
Under 2.5
44.4%
@ 1.84-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 3.30+5.0%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.30-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
@ 1.71+5.5%
No
40.4%
@ 2.02-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 5.96+5.1%
1-2
9.0%@ 8.73+3.9%
2-1
7.7%@ 9.66+3.1%
0-1
7.4%@ 7.62+1.5%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.08+2.7%
0-0
6.6%@ 9.71+2.0%
1-0
6.2%@ 8.53+0.9%
2-2
6.0%@ 12.67+2.5%
TSV Hartberg goals ↓
Ried goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
7.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.2%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TSV Hartberg goals (down), columns = Ried goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
TSV Hartberg is 0.40 points better than Ried in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
TSV Hartberg is 0.20 goals worse than Ried in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
TSV Hartberg is 0.40 goals better than Ried in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
TSV Hartberg is 10.0 percentage points worse than Ried in terms of average possession (42% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
TSV Hartberg
For 3.2 · Against 8.6 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
For 4.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
TSV Hartberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
8.3
11.8
3.7
4.7
2.9
21.6
22.4
20.9
vs Stronger (21)
10.7
8.0
13.2
4.4
5.8
3.1
21.5
21.9
21.1
vs Similar (28)
9.5
8.6
10.5
3.4
3.8
3.0
21.8
22.8
20.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
51%
32%
70%
58%
82%
39%
53%
68%
39%
% under line
49%
68%
30%
42%
18%
61%
47%
32%
61%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.4
8.7
4.0
4.2
3.7
22.7
22.2
23.2
vs Stronger (14)
8.9
10.3
7.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
20.2
20.7
19.8
vs Similar (30)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.7
4.6
4.9
24.0
22.8
25.5
vs Weaker (6)
12.0
-
12.0
1.3
-
1.3
19.5
-
19.5
% over line
40%
45%
35%
64%
68%
60%
62%
55%
70%
% under line
60%
55%
65%
36%
32%
40%
38%
45%
30%
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.2
WSG Wattens
10.0
Sturm Graz
9.9
TSV Hartberg
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.6
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.3
Grazer AK
9.1
SCR Altach
8.9
Ried
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
Grazer AK
4.6
Ried
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.4
WSG Wattens
4.3
Rapid Vienna
4.1
Red Bull Salzburg
3.9
Lask Linz
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.0
Sturm Graz
23.8
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Austria Vienna
23.1
SCR Altach
23.0
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Ried
22.5
WSG Wattens
22.5
TSV Hartberg
21.8
Lask Linz
21.0
Red Bull Salzburg
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.7%
@ 1.92-2.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.80+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.9%
Under 3.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.7%
Under 21.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
TSV Hartberg or Draw✓ Hit
67.2%
Avg Implied 60.9% · @ 1.53
Edge
+6.2%
32%
27%
42%
covers TSV Hartberg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
TSV Hartberg or Ried✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.4%
32%
27%
42%
covers TSV Hartberg + Ried
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Ried✗ Miss
61.8%
Avg Implied 66.6% · @ 1.40
Edge
-4.8%
32%
27%
42%
covers Draw + Ried
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.0%
@ 1.31+3.4%
Under
26.0%
@ 3.15-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.0%
@ 2.58+2.9%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.46-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.4%
@ 6.11+0.2%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.10-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.35
Marathonbet
6.35
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
TSV Hartberg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 14.83-1.6%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Ried over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.9%
@ 1.26-2.8%
Under
29.1%
@ 3.52+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Marathonbet
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Ried over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.9%
@ 2.31-5.4%
Under
65.1%
@ 1.56+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Ried over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 5.29-4.8%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.13+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Ried over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 10.99-4.9%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.70
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to TSV Hartberg, so a minus line means TSV Hartberg give that many goals of a start and Ried receive them. At -1, TSV Hartberg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal TSV Hartberg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (TSV Hartberg)Actual: Ried
TSV Hartberg -2
6.5%
@ 14.00-0.0%
Draw -2
11.6%
@ 8.13+0.4%
Ried +2
81.9%
@ 1.11-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.40
Away
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (TSV Hartberg)Actual: Draw
TSV Hartberg -1
18.1%
@ 5.86+2.7%
Draw -1
20.1%
@ 4.35-0.6%
Ried +1
61.8%
@ 1.41-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Handicap +1 (TSV Hartberg)Actual: TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg +1
67.2%
@ 1.53+8.7%
Draw +1
18.3%
@ 4.01-4.0%
Ried -1
14.5%
@ 4.64-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (TSV Hartberg)Actual: TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg +2
85.5%
@ 1.16+8.6%
Draw +2
9.7%
@ 6.33-4.4%
Ried -2
4.8%
@ 9.87-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.90
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.40
0.71
0.86
0.62
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.38
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.19
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.32
0.55
0.18
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.2%
@ 1.38+0.7%
Under 0.5
31.8%
@ 2.85-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Marathonbet
2.94
1xBet
2.94
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.75-2.4%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.40+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
William Hil
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Betano
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 7.11-3.4%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.90
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.3%
@ 2.15+2.1%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.64-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.8%
@ 7.06-1.3%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.07+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 20.83-2.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.1%
@ 2.01-6.2%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.73+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
Unibet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 6.28-5.7%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.09+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.67-3.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
TSV Hartberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.43
1.71
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
1.06
0.69
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
1.09
0.64
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.24-2.0%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 3.73+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.13-3.4%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.66+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 4.57-5.9%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.17+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
TSV Hartberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.3%
@ 1.83+1.7%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.87-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
TSV Hartberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 5.11-1.5%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.13+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
TSV Hartberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 13.83-2.6%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.73-6.3%
Under
52.7%
@ 2.00+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.58-7.8%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.16+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 11.69-5.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.5%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.8%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
1.28
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.0%
1.31
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.24
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.0%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
-2.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
TSV Hartberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Markuš20%
Angelo Gattermayer20%
Marco Hoffmann20%
Tobias Kainz0%
Youba Diarra0%
Paul Komposch0%
Ármin Pécsi0%
Jed Drew0%
Fabian Wilfinger0%
Oliver Lukić0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
Agustín Urrutia0%
Nikolaus Feldhofer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Angelo Gattermayer40%
Konstantin Schopp25%
Youba Diarra20%
Fabian Wilfinger20%
Habib Anas Coulibaly20%
Nikolaus Feldhofer20%
Tobias Kainz0%
Benjamin Markuš0%
Paul Komposch0%
Ármin Pécsi0%
Marco Hoffmann0%
Jed Drew0%
Oliver Lukić0%
Agustín Urrutia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tobias Kainz20%
Marco Hoffmann20%
Fabian Wilfinger20%
Youba Diarra0%
Benjamin Markuš0%
Paul Komposch0%
Angelo Gattermayer0%
Ármin Pécsi0%
Jed Drew0%
Oliver Lukić0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
Agustín Urrutia0%
Nikolaus Feldhofer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marco Hoffmann20%
Tobias Kainz0%
Youba Diarra0%
Benjamin Markuš0%
Paul Komposch0%
Angelo Gattermayer0%
Ármin Pécsi0%
Jed Drew0%
Fabian Wilfinger0%
Oliver Lukić0%
Habib Anas Coulibaly0%
Konstantin Schopp0%
Agustín Urrutia0%
Nikolaus Feldhofer0%
Ried
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Evan Eghosa20%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Malicsek40%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi40%
Niama Pape Sissoko40%
Joris Boguo33%
Tino Kusanović33%
Tobias Lund Jensen25%
Martin Rasner20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ante Bajić40%
Jussef Nasrawe25%
Stefan Schwab20%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Niama Pape Sissoko0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi20%
Niama Pape Sissoko20%
Stefan Schwab0%
Ante Bajić0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Lukas Malicsek0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Tobias Lund Jensen0%
Oliver Sorg0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Tino Kusanović0%
Jussef Nasrawe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
TSV Hartberg's squad is €3m more valuable than Ried's (€10m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
TSV Hartberg and Ried have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
TSV Hartberg and Ried have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's defence is €2m more valuable than Ried's (€5m vs €3m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna