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Tukums II vs Dinamo Rīga Result & Analysis

Date: 15/10/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 5-0
Tukums II
Tukums II
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums II win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L31W50W11D04L02L23L00D22D12LH·RĪG22/07A·SMI30/07H·RĒZ07/08A·SKA21/08H·FS 26/08A·PRO04/09H·GRO11/09A·SAL18/09H·SAL02/10A·RIG09/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.192.521.602.700.822.36
vs Stronger (21)1.192.521.602.700.822.36
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W11D13L05L16L03L02L10W05L05LH·SKA23/07A·PRO31/07H·RIG20/08A·VAL28/08H·RĪG03/09A·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.100.802.000.552.18
vs Stronger (5)0.602.600.672.330.503.00
vs Similar (12)0.252.250.202.000.292.43
vs Weaker (4)2.001.002.501.501.500.50
Clean sheet %29% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
1-0
6.2%
0-0
4.6%
Tukums II goals ↓
Dinamo Rīga goals →
01234
04.6%4.0%3.3%1.5%0.5%
16.2%11%6.5%2.9%1.0%
27.0%9.5%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.6%6.2%4.2%1.9%0.6%
42.2%3.0%2.1%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = Dinamo Rīga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Tukums II and Dinamo Rīga are level in average points per game (both 0.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
Tukums II is 0.62 goals better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 0.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Tukums II is 0.35 goals worse than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals conceded per game (2.54 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L30W10W00D01L11D00D01L12LH·RĪG22/07A·SMI30/07H·RĒZ07/08A·SKA21/08H·FS 26/08A·PRO04/09H·GRO11/09A·SAL18/09H·SAL02/10A·RIG09/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.200.601.200.401.20
vs Stronger (20)0.501.200.601.200.401.20
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L03L02L02L01L00D02L02LH·SKA23/07A·PRO31/07H·RIG20/08A·VAL28/08H·RĪG03/09A·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.201.150.441.110.001.18
vs Stronger (5)0.201.400.331.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.091.270.251.250.001.29
vs Weaker (4)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L30W20W01L04L01L12L00D21W00DH·RĪG22/07A·SMI30/07H·RĒZ07/08A·SKA21/08H·FS 26/08A·PRO04/09H·GRO11/09A·SAL18/09H·SAL02/10A·RIG09/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.651.301.001.500.301.10
vs Stronger (20)0.651.301.001.500.301.10
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D02L14L01L01L10W03L03LH·SKA23/07A·PRO31/07H·RIG20/08A·VAL28/08H·RĪG03/09A·RĒZ11/09H·FS 18/09A·SAL25/09A·GRO01/10H·SAL09/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.050.441.110.551.00
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.331.330.501.00
vs Similar (11)0.181.180.001.250.291.14
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.500.501.500.50
Clean sheet %45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
TI wins
0
Draws
1
DR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums II vs Dinamo Rīga · H/A from TI
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/22ADinamo Rīga Vs TI4-0

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22ARiga FC II Vs TI2-1
02/10/22HTI Vs Saldus SS/Leevon2-2
18/09/22ASalaspils Vs TI0-0
11/09/22HTI Vs Grobiņa2-3
04/09/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs TI2-0
26/08/22HTI Vs FS Jelgava0-4
21/08/22ASkanste Vs TI1-1
07/08/22HTI Vs Rēzekne FA5-0
30/07/22ASmiltene Vs TI1-3
22/07/22HTI Vs Rīgas FS II0-5

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22HDR Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-5
01/10/22AGrobiņa Vs DR5-0
25/09/22ASalaspils Vs DR0-1
18/09/22HDR Vs FS Jelgava0-2
11/09/22ARēzekne FA Vs DR3-0
03/09/22HDR Vs Rīgas FS II1-6
28/08/22AValmiera II Vs DR5-0
20/08/22HDR Vs Riga FC II1-3
31/07/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs DR1-1
23/07/22HDR Vs Skanste1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL0.76
HomeLWLLD0.80
AwayWDLDL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%20%18%
AVG goals3.714.303.18
Over 1.5 %81%90%73%
Over 2.5 %71%90%55%
Over 3.5 %57%70%45%
Scored1.191.600.82
Conceded2.522.702.36
BTTS52%60%45%
Clean Sheet14%10%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.00
HomeWLLLL1.00
AwayDLLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%30%27%
AVG goals2.762.802.73
Over 1.5 %67%60%73%
Over 2.5 %48%50%45%
Over 3.5 %33%40%27%
Scored0.670.800.55
Conceded2.102.002.18
BTTS24%20%27%
Clean Sheet29%40%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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