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Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-1
Tukums II
Tukums II
Vs
25%
23%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tukums II welcomes JDFS Alberts to their home turf in the Latvia: 1. Liga. The recent form of the teams suggests a contrasting narrative, with JDFS Alberts coming off a win and Tukums II having just suffered a defeat. Tukums II has been struggling at home, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded against stronger opponents. In contrast, JDFS Alberts has been scoring at a rate of 2.08 goals per game when playing away against weaker opponents, while conceding just 0.83 goals.

The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.6 goals and a most likely score of 1-1, which has a 9.6% probability. The model's selection is the away win, with a 52% probability, while the home win and draw probabilities stand at 25% and 23%, respectively. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has a 87.9% probability, indicating a likely high-scoring encounter.

Results analysis

The draw between Tukums II and JDFS Alberts on the 3rd of August in the Latvia: 1. Liga was a stunning upset, as JDFS Alberts' win extends their run of not being defeated away from home. The pre-match favourite, JDFS Alberts, was predicted to win with a 52% probability, but the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, an away win, did not come through. The model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a probability of 87.9%. The final score was a 1-1 draw, the most likely score according to the model, which had a 9.6% probability.

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Tukums II wināœ— Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 13.9% · @ 6.45
Edge
+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.06
Marathonbet
6.80
William Hil
6.50
Dafabet
6.40
Drawāœ“ Hit
22.7%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.16
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
JDFS Alberts wināœ— Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Dafabet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-912L10W04L30W22D34L21W26L20W09LH·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RÄŖG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RÄŖG20/07A·MET27/07
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.401.692.061.002.79
vs Stronger (30)1.372.401.692.061.002.79
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W20W11D43W20W20W00D01L31W11DA·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10H·TUK25/10A·AUG01/11H·RIG08/11A·GRO20/11H·GRO23/11A·JFK18/07H·SUP25/07← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.130.902.130.802.131.00
vs Stronger (19)2.050.892.220.891.900.90
vs Similar (9)2.110.671.600.202.751.25
vs Weaker (2)3.002.004.003.002.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
@ 1.06-0.1%
Under 1.5
12.1%
@ 7.75+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.0%
@ 1.26-3.7%
Under 2.5
31.0%
@ 3.35+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.6%
@ 1.68-6.9%
Under 3.5
52.4%
@ 2.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.0%
@ 1.50+6.6%
No
32.0%
@ 2.39-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.49
Betfair
1.45
William Hil
1.44
No
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.20

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 āœ“
9.6%@ 10.85+5.7%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.18+4.1%
2-2
6.6%@ 13.49+3.6%
1-3
6.5%@ 8.87+1.8%
0-2
6.4%@ 9.11+1.8%
2-1
6.3%@ 18.74+4.1%
0-1
5.2%@ 12.07+1.7%
2-3
4.7%@ 14.48+1.8%
Tukums II goals ↓
JDFS Alberts goals →
01234
03.7%5.2%6.4%4.5%2.4%
13.2%9.6%9.2%6.5%3.4%
23.0%6.3%6.6%4.7%2.5%
31.4%3.0%3.2%2.3%1.2%
40.5%1.1%1.2%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = JDFS Alberts goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Tukums II is 1.53 points worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.33).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Tukums II is 0.60 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.00).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
Tukums II is 3.33 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 0.67).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D00D01L10W01L22D11D23L00D06LH·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RÄŖG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RÄŖG20/07A·MET27/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.810.750.501.29
vs Stronger (30)0.671.000.810.750.501.29
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W00D22D00D00D00D01L00D01LA·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10H·TUK25/10A·AUG01/11H·RIG08/11A·GRO20/11H·GRO23/11A·JFK18/07H·SUP25/07← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.371.000.470.800.27
vs Stronger (19)0.950.321.220.440.700.20
vs Similar (9)0.670.220.400.201.000.25
vs Weaker (2)1.501.502.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W03L20W21W12L10W03L20W03LH·RĒZ13/09A·AUG21/09H·RIG26/09A·SMI05/10H·RÄŖG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RÄŖG20/07A·MET27/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.400.881.310.501.50
vs Stronger (30)0.701.400.881.310.501.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W11D21W20W20W00D00D31W10WA·PRO28/09H·JFK05/10A·OGR18/10H·TUK25/10A·AUG01/11H·RIG08/11A·GRO20/11H·GRO23/11A·JFK18/07H·SUP25/07← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.531.130.331.330.73
vs Stronger (19)1.110.581.000.441.200.70
vs Similar (9)1.440.441.200.001.751.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.9%1.06
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
----0.1%āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Tukums II and JDFS Alberts have a similar squad value (both €0m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and JDFS Alberts have a similar attack value (both €0m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and JDFS Alberts have a similar defence value (both €0m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TI wins
2
Draws
6
JA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts · H/A from TI
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs TI4-3
29/06/25HTI Vs JDFS Alberts1-2
19/10/24AJDFS Alberts Vs TI4-1
30/06/24HTI Vs JDFS Alberts1-4
01/11/23HTI Vs JDFS Alberts2-2
23/04/23AJDFS Alberts Vs TI3-3
29/10/22HTI Vs JDFS Alberts0-5
17/07/22AJDFS Alberts Vs TI1-0

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26AMetta / LU Vs TI9-0
20/07/26HTI Vs RÄ«gas FS II2-0
08/11/25ASkanste Vs TI6-2
01/11/25HTI Vs Riga FC II2-1
25/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs TI4-3
20/10/25HTI Vs RÄ«gas FS II2-2
05/10/25ASmiltene Vs TI0-3
26/09/25HTI Vs Riga Mariners0-4
21/09/25AAugŔdaugava Vs TI0-1
13/09/25HTI Vs Rēzekne FA1-2

JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HJA Vs Super Nova 21-1
18/07/26AJFK Ventspils Vs JA1-3
23/11/25HJA Vs Grobiņa0-1
20/11/25AGrobiņa Vs JA0-0
08/11/25HJA Vs Riga Mariners2-0
01/11/25AAugŔdaugava Vs JA0-2
25/10/25HJA Vs Tukums II4-3
18/10/25AOgre United Vs JA1-1
05/10/25HJA Vs JFK Ventspils2-0
28/09/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs JA1-6

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL0.76
HomeLLDWW0.92
AwayWWLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals3.823.723.92
Over 1.5 %84%96%72%
Over 2.5 %72%80%64%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.161.440.88
Conceded2.662.283.04
BTTS56%68%44%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD2.16
HomeWWWLD2.46
AwayWDWDW1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%77%54%
AVG goals3.022.813.25
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored2.142.152.12
Conceded0.880.651.12
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet44%54%33%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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