The model points to an away win for JFK Ventspils, with a 49% chance of victory, 26% for a Tukums II win and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.7% chance. Tukums II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 2.07 conceded, while JFK Ventspils on the road against a weaker side averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 with 98.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals98.4% (edge 7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals97.3% (edge 7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals96.7%, Under 6.596.3%, Home under 3.5 goals96.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals95.5%, and Under 5.590.9% (edge 6%). Tukums II are coming off a defeat, while JFK Ventspils are after two straight losses.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Tukums II win
25.8%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.65
Edge
-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.74
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.63
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
JFK Ventspils win
49.0%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.18
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.25
Dafabet
2.24
1xBet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betfair
2.15
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Stronger (30)
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.47
1.24
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.25
1.71
1.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
1.28
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Under 1.5
17.9%
@ 5.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.46-4.0%
Under 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.50+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
@ 2.08-7.2%
Under 3.5
63.2%
@ 1.64+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.41-4.3%
No
39.0%
@ 2.66+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
No
1xBet
2.69
Superbet
2.67
William Hil
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.22+5.9%
1-2
9.6%@ 8.74+4.8%
0-2
7.6%@ 12.60+4.3%
0-1
7.3%@ 11.36+3.7%
2-1
6.7%@ 9.36+2.3%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.08+1.9%
1-3
5.7%@ 13.60+2.7%
0-0
5.7%@ 16.80+3.2%
Tukums II goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.3%
7.6%
4.5%
2.0%
1
4.8%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.6%
2
3.7%
6.7%
6.1%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.6%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
MÄrupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
RÄzekne FA
0.00
Tukums II is 0.40 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.40).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
MÄrupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
RÄzekne FA
0.67
Tukums II is 0.60 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
MÄrupe
2.43
RÄzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Tukums II is 2.20 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 1.80).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tukums II or Draw
51.0%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.56
Edge
-8.0%
26%
25%
49%
covers Tukums II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.61
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.51
Tukums II or JFK Ventspils
74.8%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.22
Edge
-0.8%
26%
25%
49%
covers Tukums II + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Draw or JFK Ventspils
74.2%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.41
Edge
+8.8%
26%
25%
49%
covers Draw + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
@ 1.18-6.7%
Under
28.2%
@ 4.30+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.30
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
36.1%
@ 1.96-11.1%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.75+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.94
Under
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.73
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
@ 4.00-9.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.19+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.19
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.7%
Under
16.5%
@ 5.10-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5
Over
53.8%
@ 1.74+0.6%
Under
46.2%
@ 1.98-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5
Over
27.0%
@ 3.30-0.9%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.28+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.28
JFK Ventspils over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tukums II, so a minus line means Tukums II give that many goals of a start and JFK Ventspils receive them. At -1, Tukums II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -2
3.7%
Draw -2
7.5%
JFK Ventspils +2
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -1
11.2%
@ 4.50-8.8%
Draw -1
14.6%
@ 4.50-5.4%
JFK Ventspils +1
74.2%
@ 1.50+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Away
Betfair
1.50
Handicap +1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +1
51.0%
@ 1.57-5.9%
Draw +1
21.3%
@ 4.33+0.6%
JFK Ventspils -1
27.7%
@ 4.00+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Betfair
4.33
Away
Betfair
4.00
Handicap +2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +2
72.3%
Draw +2
15.2%
JFK Ventspils -2
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.41
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.9%
@ 1.20-7.7%
Under 0.5
31.1%
@ 3.93+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
William Hil
3.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.05-13.2%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.65+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 4.41-9.7%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.17+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.14
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.3%
@ 1.83-10.0%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.85+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 4.85-8.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.13+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.85
Under
1xBet
1.13
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 11.00-6.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
@ 1.71-5.8%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.99
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
@ 4.25-8.9%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.17+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Under
1xBet
1.17
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 10.00-6.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
0.70
0.90
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.4%
Under 0.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.8%
Under 1.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+8.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.17
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.14
-
-
+9.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+8.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.5%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-
+7.1%
Home or Away
74.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-0.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
+8.8%
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
1.50
Betfair
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
73.0%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Home +2 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.7%
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Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →