Tukums II face Leevon / PPK in a match that feels almost evenly matched, yet the model leans toward an away win. The odds sit at 36 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw, and 37 % for the visitors, making the latter the most likely outcome. Expect a modest 2.9 goals overall, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 12.7 %. Tukums II, playing at home against a stronger side, average 1.73 goals scored and 2.07 conceded, while Leevon / PPK, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Under 5.5 (92.6 %), Under 4.5 (83.1 %), Away +2 handicap (82.4 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (82.2 %). The home side’s recent form shows a loss to Riga Mariners, while the visitors are riding a five-game winning streak after a 4-2 victory over Smiltene.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums II win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK win
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Stronger (30)
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
2.19
1.69
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (21)
2.00
1.33
2.73
1.45
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
6.8%
1-0
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
5.8%
Tukums II goals ↓
Leevon / PPK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.8%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.8%
13%
8.4%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.4%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = Leevon / PPK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Tukums II is 2.20 points worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Tukums II is 0.80 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Tukums II is 3.00 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tukums II or Draw
63.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Tukums II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II or Leevon / PPK
72.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Tukums II + Leevon / PPK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Leevon / PPK
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Leevon / PPK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tukums II, so a minus line means Tukums II give that many goals of a start and Leevon / PPK receive them. At -1, Tukums II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -2
6.6%
Draw -2
11.0%
Leevon / PPK +2
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -1
17.6%
Draw -1
18.6%
Leevon / PPK +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +1
63.3%
Draw +1
18.8%
Leevon / PPK -1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +2
82.1%
Draw +2
11.2%
Leevon / PPK -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.19
0.88
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.81
1.45
0.82
0.50
0.80
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.7%
Under 1.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.7%
Under 2.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.81
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.52
1.27
0.64
0.70
0.40
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.14
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.5%
Under 0.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.3%
Under 1.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.8%
Under 2.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Tukums II and Leevon / PPK have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and Leevon / PPK have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Tukums II and Leevon / PPK have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and Leevon / PPK have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA