Tukums II are tipped to win the encounter, the model’s favourite result, with a 43% chance of a home victory, a 26% draw probability and a 31% chance of Riga FC II taking the win. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two, occurring 24% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability, a tidy reflection of both sides’ defensive tendencies. Tukums II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 1.73 goals scored and 2.07 conceded, while Riga FC II, on the road to a weaker foe, average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model offers a range of selections: Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (85.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.5%) and Under 4.5 (82.0%). Tukums II’s recent form shows a 2-straight defeat streak, while Riga FC II come off a draw, setting the stage for a cautious, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums II win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Stronger (30)
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.87
1.60
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.47
2.00
1.43
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.00
1.83
2.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.8%
Tukums II goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.8%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.2%
12%
7.6%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.1%
6.1%
2.8%
0.9%
3
3.6%
4.9%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums II goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Tukums II is 0.03 points worse than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Tukums II is 0.40 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Tukums II is 2.00 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tukums II or Draw
69.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Tukums II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II or Riga FC II
73.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Tukums II + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga FC II
57.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
26%
31%
covers Draw + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tukums II, so a minus line means Tukums II give that many goals of a start and Riga FC II receive them. At -1, Tukums II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -2
9.2%
Draw -2
13.2%
Riga FC II +2
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II -1
22.4%
Draw -1
20.2%
Riga FC II +1
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +1
69.1%
Draw +1
16.7%
Riga FC II -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tukums II)
Tukums II +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.2%
Riga FC II -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Tukums II and Riga FC II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and Riga FC II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Tukums II and Riga FC II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA