Tukums vs Auda Result & Analysis

The model sees Auda as the clear favourite, rating a 64% chance of victory largely because the home side, Tukums, struggles at home against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.5 goals and conceding 7.0 on average. Auda, playing away against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and only 0.33 conceded, making an away win the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Auda, with an 11.7% probability. Tukums’ recent form note highlights a slump after three straight defeats, while Auda is coming off a draw. The home win probability is 14%, the draw 22%, and the away win 64%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries a 79.1% probability and has already hit.

The upset came early as Tukums snatched a 2-1 win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an Auda victory, which had a 64% probability. The prediction was therefore wrong. Tukums’ recent form, marked by a 3-game losing streak, made the win all the more surprising, while Auda, fresh from a draw, had been tipped to dominate away. The model’s only other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 79.1%, was correct, as the match produced three goals. The expected total of 2.9 was close to the actual 3, and the most likely scoreline of 0-2, with 11.7% probability, did not materialise.