Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Tukums’ recent form, marked by three straight defeats, suggests a fragile defence, while BFC Daugavpils, still recovering from a loss, have struggled to score, averaging only half a goal per away match. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.7 goals, the most probable total being three goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.2% chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with the model assigning a 44% probability to BFC Daugavpils triumph, 33% to a home victory, and 23% to a draw. Home scoring and conceding averages are 2.0 and 2.0 respectively, while the away side’s averages are 0.5 scored and 2.5 conceded against similar opponents. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89.3%, BTTS Yes at 71.7%, and Over 2.5 goals at 71.6%. These probabilities reflect the model’s assessment of the match’s likely flow.

After a string of three defeats, Tukums’ recent form remains shaky, while BFC Daugavpils, fresh from a loss, struggled to find the net. The match finished 0-1 in favour of the visitors, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win with a 44% probability. The total goals fell far below the expected 3.7, with only one goal scored. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 (89.3%) missed, BTTS Yes (71.7%) missed, and Over 2.5 (71.6%) also missed. Overall, the prediction of an away victory proved correct, but the low-scoring outcome surprised the model’s goal expectations.