Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

The match between Tukums and BFC Daugavpils is a tight affair, with the model favouring a Tukums victory. Home win odds sit at 39%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 34%, leaving the home side as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high scoring game, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Tukums, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while BFC Daugavpils, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.78 conceded. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.1% probability. Recent form adds nuance: Tukums has lost three of five after a 1-4 defeat to FS Jelgava, whereas BFC Daugavpils comes off a 0-1 loss to Grobiņa. All figures are presented exactly as supplied.

The pre-match favourite, Tukums, failed to deliver a win in a 0-0 stalemate that left the model’s call wrong. The match was a surprise draw, the first in a string of five games that saw Tukums drop three consecutive defeats before a win and a loss, while BFC Daugavpils ended a defeat with two wins and a loss. The model had picked a home win at 39% probability, but the outcome was a draw. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1%, missed, as no goals were scored. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the unexpected result.