Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

The match is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds are close: 38% for Tukums, 27% for a draw, and 35% for BFC Daugavpils. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, and the most likely total is 2, which occurs 25% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Tukums, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while BFC Daugavpils, on the road, averages 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.1% probability. Tukums has a 38% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw, and BFC Daugavpils a 35% chance of victory. The recent form shows Tukums struggling after three straight losses, while BFC Daugavpils is coming off a defeat.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong, and the match finished 0-1 in favour of BFC Daugavpils. Tukums, who had just ended a streak of three straight defeats, were expected to lift their form, but the visitors, coming off a loss, proved too strong. The model had given the Home win a 38% probability, yet it missed. Its other selection, Over 1.5, with a 79.1% chance, also missed. The most likely score was 1-1 at 12.9%, followed by 2-1 at 8.6% and 1-2 at 8.2%. The expected total of 2.9 goals fell short, with only one goal scored.