FK Liepaja is expected to win, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a win against Super Nova, whereas Tukums is coming off a defeat against BFC Daugavils. The probabilities for the match result are 31% for Tukums, 27% for a draw, and 42% for FK Liepaja.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%.
At home, Tukums scores an average of 1.45 goals and concedes 1.55. Against similar-strength opponents, FK Liepaja scores 1.6 goals and concedes 1.1 when playing away.
The model suggests over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 79.7%, and this pick has hit. The percentages for the match result are 31% for Tukums, 27% for a draw, and 42% for FK Liepaja. The model's selection is an away win.
Results analysis
FK Liepaja's 2-1 victory over Tukums marks a stunning upset in the Latvia: Virsliga. This win extends Tukums' losing streak, which now stands at five matches. The pre-match favourite, FK Liepaja, failed to come through, with the model correctly predicting an away win, albeit with a 42% probability. The model's selection, an away win, was correct. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 79.7% probability. In contrast, the model's call on the most likely total goals, 2, missed. The most likely scores, 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, all carried a low probability, with 1-1 being the most likely at 12.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums win✓ Hit
31.2%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.13
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.02
10Bet
3.00
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.62
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 1.98
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Dafabet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.83
1.38
1.81
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
2.19
1.27
2.09
0.70
2.30
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.85
1.08
1.35
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.29
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.57
0.43
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.31
1.67
1.33
1.80
1.30
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.15+0.1%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 4.48-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.56-4.0%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 2.27+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.41-5.1%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.48+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
@ 1.49-2.1%
No
40.6%
@ 2.38+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Unibet
1.49
No
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.42+6.4%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.24+3.5%
2-1 ✓
7.6%@ 8.88+3.1%
0-1
7.5%@ 8.58+2.8%
0-2
6.8%@ 9.78+2.7%
0-0
6.7%@ 14.15+3.8%
1-0
6.2%@ 10.40+2.3%
2-2
6.0%@ 9.72+1.9%
Tukums goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.5%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.2%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.6%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.60
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
Tukums is 1.57 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.20
Rīgas FS
2.40
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
Tukums is 1.45 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.40
Rīgas FS
0.60
Auda
0.60
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
Tukums is 0.98 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.56
0.94
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
1.05
0.64
1.09
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.85
0.62
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.56
0.83
0.67
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.81
0.88
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.38
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.10
1.30
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.46
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.14
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.75
0.83
0.67
0.70
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
Super Nova
Ogre United
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava