The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for FK Liepaja, 25% for a Tukums victory and 25% for a draw. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total is two, reflecting a moderate scoring outlook. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability, and that is the only scoreline to be highlighted. Tukums, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.22 conceded, while FK Liepaja, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (91.6%), Away +2 handicap (89.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.7%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.3%). Tukums has a 25% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and FK Liepaja a 50% chance of triumph.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.00
1.31
2.00
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
2.39
1.33
2.22
0.67
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.42
1.29
1.71
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.33
2.15
1.23
1.41
1.41
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
2.33
2.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.00
2.33
0.50
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
1.23
1.75
1.50
1.78
1.11
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.4%
Tukums goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.8%
7.6%
4.3%
1.8%
1
5.4%
12%
9.5%
5.4%
2.3%
2
4.1%
6.9%
5.9%
3.4%
1.4%
3
1.7%
2.9%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Tukums is 1.50 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Tukums is 1.25 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Tukums is 1.12 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tukums or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
47%
covers Tukums + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums or FK Liepaja
73.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
47%
covers Tukums + FK Liepaja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Liepaja
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
26%
47%
covers Draw + FK Liepaja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tukums over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tukums, so a minus line means Tukums give that many goals of a start and FK Liepaja receive them. At -1, Tukums must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tukums)
Tukums -2
3.9%
Draw -2
7.9%
FK Liepaja +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tukums)
Tukums -1
11.7%
Draw -1
15.3%
FK Liepaja +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tukums)
Tukums +1
53.1%
Draw +1
21.3%
FK Liepaja -1
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tukums)
Tukums +2
74.4%
Draw +2
14.6%
FK Liepaja -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.56
1.00
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.62
0.76
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.21
1.21
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.22
0.67
0.89
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.92
0.86
1.14
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.15
0.62
0.65
0.82
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Tukums's squad is €3m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Tukums's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Tukums and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Tukums and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United