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Tukums vs FS Jelgava Result & Analysis

Date: 09/11/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
42%
27%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D01L14L32W21W01L24L00D10WH·AUD10/08A·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.801.331.870.801.73
vs Stronger (18)0.892.391.332.560.442.22
vs Similar (12)1.330.921.330.831.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D11D23L41W23L11D11D00D22D22DA·MET09/08H·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.301.381.120.861.50
vs Stronger (13)1.151.691.291.571.001.83
vs Similar (13)1.000.921.290.570.671.33
vs Weaker (4)1.501.252.001.501.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.6%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Tukums goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
01234
06.6%6.1%4.8%2.1%0.7%
17.5%13%7.6%3.3%1.1%
26.9%9.1%6.0%2.6%0.9%
33.6%4.8%3.2%1.4%0.5%
41.4%1.9%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Tukums is 0.06 points worse than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
Tukums and FS Jelgava are level in goals scored per game (both 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
Tukums is 0.47 goals worse than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D12L11D01L00D22D00D10WH·AUD10/08A·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.531.000.670.80
vs Stronger (18)0.611.280.781.440.441.11
vs Similar (12)0.580.330.170.331.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D23L30W00D01L00D00D22D11DA·MET09/08H·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.560.500.570.79
vs Stronger (13)0.540.690.290.430.831.00
vs Similar (13)0.540.620.710.430.330.83
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L02L21W20W01L02L00D00DH·AUD10/08A·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.800.870.130.93
vs Stronger (18)0.281.110.561.110.001.11
vs Similar (12)0.750.581.170.500.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D11D23L10W11D00D00D11DA·MET09/08H·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.810.620.290.71
vs Stronger (13)0.621.001.001.140.170.83
vs Similar (13)0.460.310.570.140.330.50
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.000.500.501.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TUK wins
5
Draws
1
FJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs FS Jelgava · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AFS Jelgava Vs TUK1-1
17/06/25HTUK Vs FS Jelgava1-1
23/04/25AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-1
15/09/24HTUK Vs FS Jelgava3-3
26/06/24AFS Jelgava Vs TUK0-0
07/05/24HTUK Vs FS Jelgava2-1
17/03/24AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-3
11/11/23HTUK Vs FS Jelgava0-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25AAuda Vs TUK0-1
24/10/25ARiga Vs TUK0-0
19/10/25HTUK Vs Rīgas FS2-4
04/10/25AGrobiņa Vs TUK1-0
28/09/25HTUK Vs Super Nova2-1
20/09/25HTUK Vs Metta / LU3-2
14/09/25AFK Liepaja Vs TUK4-1
30/08/25HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
23/08/25AFS Jelgava Vs TUK1-1
10/08/25HTUK Vs Auda1-0

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25HFJ Vs Metta / LU2-2
25/10/25AFK Liepaja Vs FJ2-2
18/10/25HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
04/10/25ASuper Nova Vs FJ1-1
27/09/25HFJ Vs Auda1-1
21/09/25HFJ Vs Riga2-3
13/09/25ARīgas FS Vs FJ1-4
29/08/25AGrobiņa Vs FJ3-2
23/08/25HFJ Vs Tukums1-1
09/08/25AMetta / LU Vs FJ2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW0.96
HomeWLWWL1.12
AwayDLLDW0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals3.163.293.04
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %36%46%27%
Scored1.101.290.92
Conceded2.062.002.12
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 7 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDD0.92
HomeDLDDD1.28
AwayDLWDD0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%32%8%
AVG goals2.782.523.04
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.041.200.88
Conceded1.741.322.16
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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