Tukums vs FS Jelgava Result & Analysis

Date: 29/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 1-4

Tukums

43%

27%

30%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

FS Jelgava

Latvia: Virsliga

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

The clash between Tukums and FS Jelgava is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no side standing out decisively. Tukums, still on a shaky run of two losses, have been scoring and conceding 1.17 goals on the road against similar opposition, while Jelgava, fresh from a win, have been netting 1.0 and allowing 1.55 goals away. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6 % chance. The probabilities for the match result are 41 % for a Tukums victory, 27 % for a draw, and 32 % for a Jelgava win. The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 (99 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), and Home under 3.5 goals (92.7 %).

Results analysis

After a run of three straight defeats, Tukums failed to turn the tide at home, falling 1-4 to FS Jelgava and ending their winless streak. The pre-match favourite was Tukums, with a 43% chance of victory, but the model’s call was wrong. The match produced a decisive away win, a 4-goal total that matched the most likely score of 2-1 in the model’s distribution but not the actual result. Every suggested pick was reported: Under 7.5 hit at 99%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 97%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96%, Under 5.5 hit at 92.3%; the only misses were Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8% and Away under 3.5 goals at 95.5%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss

42.9%

Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.68

Edge

+9.3%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.84

William Hil

2.80

1xBet

2.80

Marathonbet

2.72

Superbet

2.67

Draw✗ Miss

26.7%

Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.23

Edge

-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

3.40

Bet365

3.40

Dafabet

3.35

Pinnacle

3.30

Betano

3.25

FS Jelgava win✓ Hit

30.4%

Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.34

Edge

-8.1%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

2.46

Superbet

2.40

Pinnacle

2.36

Betano

2.35

Unibet

2.35

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.3

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.07	1.93	1.33	1.87	0.80	2.00
vs Stronger (19)	0.95	2.37	1.33	2.22	0.60	2.50
vs Similar (11)	1.27	1.18	1.33	1.33	1.20	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	13% (-15pp vs league)

This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.5

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.47	0.87	1.20	1.13	1.73
vs Stronger (14)	0.93	1.71	0.78	1.44	1.20	2.20
vs Similar (13)	0.85	1.15	0.50	0.50	1.00	1.44
vs Weaker (3)	2.00	1.67	2.00	1.50	2.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	10% (-18pp vs league)

This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

80.1%

@ 1.21+4.2%

Under 1.5

19.9%

@ 3.80-4.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

Betfair

1.22

Unibet

1.20

Superbet

1.20

Marathonbet

1.19

Under

Betfair

4.20

Bet365

3.75

Marathonbet

3.74

1xBet

3.74

Unibet

3.70

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

56.0%

@ 1.74+2.8%

Under 2.5

44.0%

@ 1.97-2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.80

Pinnacle

1.79

Marathonbet

1.75

1xBet

1.75

Superbet

1.73

Under

SBO

2.03

Bet365

2.00

Betfair

2.00

Pinnacle

1.99

Superbet

1.97

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

33.6%

@ 2.78+0.6%

Under 3.5

66.4%

@ 1.37-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.88

Pinnacle

2.88

Marathonbet

2.81

1xBet

2.81

Bet365

2.75

Under

Bet365

1.40

Betfair

1.40

Pinnacle

1.38

Superbet

1.37

Unibet

1.37

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

59.7%

@ 1.59+1.9%

40.3%

@ 2.18-1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.67

William Hil

1.60

Betfair

1.60

Superbet

1.60

1xBet

1.58

Betfair

2.25

Unibet

2.20

William Hil

2.20

Superbet

2.20

1xBet

2.19

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.5%@ 5.84+5.3%

2-1

9.1%@ 8.94+4.4%

1-2

7.5%@ 8.37+2.5%

1-0

7.5%@ 8.94+2.7%

2-0

6.9%@ 12.93+3.6%

0-0

6.5%@ 11.12+2.7%

2-2

6.0%@ 10.68+2.1%

0-1

6.0%@ 8.23+0.8%

Tukums goals ↓

	FS Jelgava goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	6.0%	4.7%	2.1%	0.7%
1	7.5%	13%	7.5%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.9%	9.1%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.7%	4.9%	3.2%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.5%	2.0%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Rīgas FS

2.43

Riga

2.29

Auda

2.00

FK Liepaja

1.88

BFC Daugavpils

1.62

Super Nova

1.33

Grobiņa

1.00

FS Jelgava

0.86

Ogre United

0.57

Tukums

0.38

Tukums is 0.48 points worse than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Riga

3.00

Rīgas FS

2.57

FK Liepaja

2.00

BFC Daugavpils

1.50

Super Nova

1.17

Grobiņa

1.14

FS Jelgava

1.14

Auda

1.14

Ogre United

1.00

Tukums

0.75

Tukums is 0.39 goals worse than FS Jelgava in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Auda

0.57

Rīgas FS

0.86

BFC Daugavpils

0.88

Super Nova

1.00

Riga

1.14

FK Liepaja

1.25

FS Jelgava

1.71

Tukums

2.38

Grobiņa

2.57

Ogre United

3.00

Tukums is 0.66 goals worse than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Tukums or Draw✗ Miss

69.6%

Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.48

Edge

+8.1%

43%

27%

30%

covers Tukums + Draw

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.55

Bet365

1.53

Betfair

1.53

Marathonbet

1.48

1xBet

1.48

Tukums or FS Jelgava✓ Hit

73.3%

Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.26

Edge

+1.2%

43%

27%

30%

covers Tukums + FS Jelgava

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.33

Betano

1.29

Marathonbet

1.26

Superbet

1.26

1xBet

1.26

Draw or FS Jelgava✓ Hit

57.1%

Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.37

Edge

-9.3%

43%

27%

30%

covers Draw + FS Jelgava

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

1.40

Bet365

1.40

Betano

1.39

SBO

1.38

Superbet

1.37

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Tukums over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

79.9%

@ 1.27+7.3%

Under

20.1%

@ 3.36-7.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.30

1xBet

1.25

Marathonbet

1.25

Under

Bet365

3.40

Marathonbet

3.34

1xBet

3.34

Tukums over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

47.6%

@ 2.34+8.2%

Under

52.4%

@ 1.52-8.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.45

Bet365

2.38

1xBet

2.35

Marathonbet

2.35

Unibet

2.16

Under

Unibet

1.54

Pinnacle

1.53

Bet365

1.53

Marathonbet

1.50

1xBet

1.50

Tukums over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

21.7%

@ 5.37+4.7%

Under

78.3%

@ 1.10-4.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.55

Marathonbet

5.55

Bet365

5.00

Under

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.08

1xBet

1.08

Tukums over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

7.9%

@ 10.00-1.4%

Under

92.1%

@ 1.03+1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

10.00

Under

Bet365

1.03

FS Jelgava over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

73.3%

@ 1.21-2.5%

Under

26.7%

@ 3.80+2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

1xBet

1.19

Marathonbet

1.19

Under

1xBet

3.84

Marathonbet

3.82

Bet365

3.75

FS Jelgava over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

38.1%

@ 2.12-5.4%

Under

61.9%

@ 1.63+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.20

Pinnacle

2.16

1xBet

2.11

Marathonbet

2.11

Unibet

2.02

Under

Pinnacle

1.67

Marathonbet

1.63

1xBet

1.63

Unibet

1.62

Bet365

1.62

FS Jelgava over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

14.8%

@ 4.60-5.0%

Under

85.2%

@ 1.14+5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.65

Marathonbet

4.65

Bet365

4.50

Under

Bet365

1.17

1xBet

1.12

Marathonbet

1.12

FS Jelgava over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

4.5%

@ 9.00-5.8%

Under

95.5%

@ 1.04+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

9.00

Under

Bet365

1.04

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tukums, so a minus line means Tukums give that many goals of a start and FS Jelgava receive them. At -1, Tukums must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Tukums)Actual: FS Jelgava

Tukums -2

9.2%

@ 9.85+0.4%

Draw -2

13.3%

@ 6.15-0.8%

FS Jelgava +2

77.5%

@ 1.12+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

13.00

Marathonbet

6.70

Draw

Bet365

7.50

Marathonbet

4.80

Away

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.10

Handicap -1 (Tukums)Actual: FS Jelgava

Tukums -1

22.5%

@ 5.18+5.8%

Draw -1

20.4%

@ 4.23-0.0%

FS Jelgava +1

57.1%

@ 1.38-5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Marathonbet

5.75

Bet365

5.50

Unibet

4.30

Draw

Marathonbet

4.60

Bet365

4.50

Unibet

3.60

Away

Bet365

1.44

Marathonbet

1.35

Unibet

1.35

Handicap +1 (Tukums)Actual: FS Jelgava

Tukums +1

69.6%

@ 1.50+11.7%

Draw +1

16.6%

@ 3.91-5.5%

FS Jelgava -1

13.8%

@ 4.31-6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.57

Betfair

1.50

Marathonbet

1.48

Unibet

1.43

Draw

Marathonbet

4.20

Betfair

4.00

Bet365

4.00

Unibet

3.45

Away

Marathonbet

4.60

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.33

Unibet

3.80

Handicap +2 (Tukums)Actual: FS Jelgava

Tukums +2

86.2%

@ 1.17+11.9%

Draw +2

9.0%

@ 5.60-6.5%

FS Jelgava -2

4.8%

@ 8.53-5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.20

Marathonbet

1.13

Draw

Bet365

6.50

Marathonbet

4.70

Away

Bet365

11.00

Marathonbet

6.05

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.57	0.90	0.53	1.00	0.60	0.80
vs Stronger (19)	0.58	1.16	0.67	1.33	0.50	1.00
vs Similar (11)	0.55	0.45	0.33	0.50	0.80	0.40
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	40% (+12pp vs league)

This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	0.80	0.40	0.67	0.60	0.93
vs Stronger (14)	0.50	0.93	0.22	0.78	1.00	1.20
vs Similar (13)	0.38	0.69	0.50	0.25	0.33	0.89
vs Weaker (3)	1.00	0.67	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+12pp vs league)

This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

69.2%

@ 1.32-0.7%

Under 0.5

30.8%

@ 3.06+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.33

Marathonbet

1.33

Pinnacle

1.33

1xBet

1.33

William Hil

1.30

Under

Bet365

3.25

Betfair

3.20

William Hil

3.10

Pinnacle

3.07

1xBet

2.88

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

32.3%

@ 2.52-3.9%

Under 1.5

67.7%

@ 1.43+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.63

Bet365

2.62

Pinnacle

2.58

1xBet

2.56

Marathonbet

2.56

Under

Pinnacle

1.46

Unibet

1.45

Bet365

1.44

William Hil

1.44

Betfair

1.44

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

11.0%

@ 6.17-3.9%

Under 2.5

89.0%

@ 1.08+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.45

Marathonbet

6.40

William Hil

6.00

Bet365

6.00

Betfair

6.00

Under

William Hil

1.11

Bet365

1.11

Betfair

1.10

Marathonbet

1.05

1xBet

1.05

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

46.8%

@ 2.07+2.5%

Under

53.2%

@ 1.65-2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.10

1xBet

2.06

Marathonbet

2.06

Under

Pinnacle

1.70

Marathonbet

1.63

1xBet

1.63

Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

12.9%

@ 7.15+0.2%

Under

87.1%

@ 1.04-0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

7.20

Marathonbet

7.10

Under

Marathonbet

1.04

1xBet

1.04

Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

2.3%

Under

97.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

40.0%

@ 1.93-7.7%

Under

60.0%

@ 1.76+7.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.94

1xBet

1.92

Marathonbet

1.92

Under

Pinnacle

1.82

Marathonbet

1.73

1xBet

1.73

FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

9.9%

@ 6.20-4.8%

Under

90.1%

@ 1.07+4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.20

1xBet

6.20

Under

1xBet

1.07

Marathonbet

1.07

FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.6%

Under

98.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.3

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	1.03	0.80	0.87	0.20	1.20
vs Stronger (19)	0.37	1.21	0.67	0.89	0.10	1.50
vs Similar (11)	0.73	0.73	1.00	0.83	0.40	0.60
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+5pp vs league)

This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	0.67	0.47	0.53	0.53	0.80
vs Stronger (14)	0.43	0.79	0.56	0.67	0.20	1.00
vs Similar (13)	0.46	0.46	0.00	0.25	0.67	0.56
vs Weaker (3)	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.50	1.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	47% (+18pp vs league)

This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

76.4%

@ 1.19-1.3%

Under 0.5

23.6%

@ 4.13+1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.22

Bet365

1.20

Marathonbet

1.16

1xBet

1.16

Under

Bet365

4.33

1xBet

4.15

Marathonbet

4.15

William Hil

3.90

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

42.1%

@ 1.95-5.3%

Under 1.5

57.9%

@ 1.76+5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

2.00

Marathonbet

1.94

1xBet

1.94

Bet365

1.91

Under

Bet365

1.80

1xBet

1.75

Marathonbet

1.75

William Hil

1.73

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

16.5%

@ 4.04-6.2%

Under 2.5

83.5%

@ 1.19+6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

4.20

Bet365

4.00

1xBet

4.00

Marathonbet

3.98

Under

Bet365

1.22

William Hil

1.20

Marathonbet

1.17

1xBet

1.17

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

53.6%

@ 1.75+1.0%

Under

46.4%

@ 1.94-1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.77

Marathonbet

1.72

Under

1xBet

1.94

Marathonbet

1.93

Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

17.9%

@ 4.83-1.0%

Under

82.1%

@ 1.12+1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.85

1xBet

4.80

Under

1xBet

1.13

Marathonbet

1.12

Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

4.0%

Under

96.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

50.7%

@ 1.62-5.8%

Under

49.3%

@ 2.11+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.63

Marathonbet

1.62

Under

1xBet

2.14

Marathonbet

2.08

FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

14.1%

@ 4.12-8.1%

Under

85.9%

@ 1.18+8.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.25

1xBet

4.00

Under

1xBet

1.19

Marathonbet

1.16

FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over

Over

3.2%

Under

96.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	97.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	97.0%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	+4.2%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	96.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals	96.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	95.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.8%	✗ Miss
Under 5.5	92.3%	1.03	Bet365 1.05	1xBet 1.04	Marathonbet 1.01	-	-	+2.2%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	92.1%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+1.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	90.1%	1.07	1xBet 1.07	Marathonbet 1.07	-	-	-	+4.8%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	89.0%	1.08	William Hil 1.11	Bet365 1.11	Betfair 1.10	Marathonbet 1.05	1xBet 1.05	+3.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	87.1%	1.04	Marathonbet 1.04	1xBet 1.04	-	-	-	-0.2%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	86.2%	1.17	Bet365 1.20	Marathonbet 1.13	-	-	-	+11.9%	✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals	85.9%	1.18	1xBet 1.19	Marathonbet 1.16	-	-	-	+8.1%	✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals	85.2%	1.14	Bet365 1.17	1xBet 1.12	Marathonbet 1.12	-	-	+5.0%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	83.5%	1.19	Bet365 1.22	William Hil 1.20	Marathonbet 1.17	1xBet 1.17	-	+6.2%	✗ Miss
Under 4.5	82.8%	1.11	Bet365 1.14	1xBet 1.09	Marathonbet 1.09	-	-	+0.2%	✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals	82.1%	1.12	1xBet 1.13	Marathonbet 1.12	-	-	-	+1.0%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	80.1%	1.21	Bet365 1.25	Betfair 1.22	Unibet 1.20	Superbet 1.20	Marathonbet 1.19	+4.2%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	79.9%	1.27	Bet365 1.30	1xBet 1.25	Marathonbet 1.25	-	-	+7.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	78.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.08	1xBet 1.08	-	-	-4.7%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	77.5%	1.12	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.10	-	-	-	+0.4%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	76.4%	1.19	William Hil 1.22	Bet365 1.20	Marathonbet 1.16	1xBet 1.16	-	-1.3%	✓ Hit
Home or Away	73.3%	1.26	William Hil 1.33	Betano 1.29	Marathonbet 1.26	Superbet 1.26	1xBet 1.26	+1.2%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals	73.3%	1.21	Bet365 1.25	1xBet 1.19	Marathonbet 1.19	-	-	-2.5%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (27)

€16m

RF (29)

€11m

AUD (25)

€6m

FL (21)

€5m

OU (27)

€3m

SN (24)

€3m

GRO (25)

€3m

FJ (23)

€3m

BD (21)

€3m

TUK (20)

€2m

Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (10)

€7m

RF (15)

€6m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (7)

€2m

OU (12)

€2m

GRO (10)

€1m

SN (8)

€1m

FJ (8)

€1m

TUK (7)

€1m

BD (7)

€1m

Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (5)

€3m

RF (4)

€2m

SN (6)

€1m

FL (4)

€1m

BD (6)

€1m

OU (4)

€1m

GRO (6)

€1m

FJ (5)

€0m

AUD (3)

€0m

TUK (3)

€0m

Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (12)

€6m

RF (10)

€3m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (10)

€2m

FJ (10)

€1m

GRO (9)

€1m

TUK (10)

€1m

OU (11)

€1m

BD (8)

€1m

SN (10)

€1m

Tukums and FS Jelgava have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

TUK wins

Draws

FJ wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs FS Jelgava · H/A from TUK

Date	H/A	Game	Score
09/11/25	H	TUK Vs FS Jelgava	1-1
23/08/25	A	FS Jelgava Vs TUK	1-1
17/06/25	H	TUK Vs FS Jelgava	1-1
23/04/25	A	FS Jelgava Vs TUK	2-1
15/09/24	H	TUK Vs FS Jelgava	3-3
26/06/24	A	FS Jelgava Vs TUK	0-0
07/05/24	H	TUK Vs FS Jelgava	2-1
17/03/24	A	FS Jelgava Vs TUK	2-3

Tukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
21/08/26	A	Auda Vs TUK	3-0
08/08/26	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs TUK	2-0
02/08/26	H	TUK Vs FK Liepaja	2-1
27/07/26	H	TUK Vs Rīgas FS	0-1
18/07/26	A	Riga Vs TUK	3-1
05/07/26	A	Grobiņa Vs TUK	3-1
01/07/26	H	TUK Vs Super Nova	1-2
09/11/25	H	TUK Vs FS Jelgava	1-1
02/11/25	A	Auda Vs TUK	0-1
24/10/25	A	Riga Vs TUK	0-0

FS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
22/08/26	A	Ogre United Vs FJ	2-3
09/08/26	H	FJ Vs Auda	0-1
01/08/26	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs FJ	2-1
26/07/26	H	FJ Vs FK Liepaja	0-2
20/07/26	H	FJ Vs Rīgas FS	0-1
03/07/26	A	Riga Vs FJ	3-0
09/11/25	A	Tukums Vs FJ	1-1
02/11/25	H	FJ Vs Metta / LU	2-2
25/10/25	A	FK Liepaja Vs FJ	2-2
18/10/25	H	FJ Vs BFC Daugavpils	0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWLL	0.92
Home	LDLLW	1.13
Away	WLLLL	0.74

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	24%	30%	19%
AVG goals	3.04	2.91	3.15
Over 1.5 %	78%	74%	81%
Over 2.5 %	56%	57%	56%
Over 3.5 %	30%	30%	30%
Scored	1.04	1.22	0.89
Conceded	2.00	1.70	2.26
BTTS	54%	57%	52%
Clean Sheet	16%	17%	15%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

FS Jelgava

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLLLW	0.92
Home	DDLLL	1.24
Away	DDLLW	0.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	20%	32%	8%
AVG goals	2.52	2.36	2.68
Over 1.5 %	74%	68%	80%
Over 2.5 %	42%	40%	44%
Over 3.5 %	26%	24%	28%
Scored	1.04	1.16	0.92
Conceded	1.48	1.20	1.76
BTTS	50%	52%	48%
Clean Sheet	12%	16%	8%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Rīgas FS	7	17	71%	2.4	18	6	+12	3.4	71%	57%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	11	6	2	3	2.6	0.9	-
2	Riga	7	16	71%	2.3	21	8	+13	4.1	100%	86%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	16	7	3	6	3.0	1.1	-
3	FK Liepaja	8	15	62%	1.9	16	10	+6	3.2	88%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	2.0	1.2	-
4	Auda	7	14	57%	2.0	8	4	+4	1.7	57%	14%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	0	3	1.1	0.6	-
5	BFC Daugavpils	8	13	50%	1.6	12	7	+5	2.4	62%	50%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.5	0.9	-
6	Super Nova	6	8	33%	1.3	7	6	+1	2.2	83%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.2	1.0	-
7	Grobiņa	7	7	29%	1.0	8	18	-10	3.7	86%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.1	2.6	-
8	FS Jelgava	7	6	29%	0.9	8	12	-4	2.9	71%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	0	1	1.1	1.7	-
9	Ogre United	7	4	14%	0.6	7	21	-14	4.0	100%	100%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	2	1	1	1.0	3.0	-
10	Tukums	8	3	12%	0.4	6	19	-13	3.1	88%	75%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.8	2.4	-

Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches

Tukums vs FS Jelgava Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tukums

FS Jelgava

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tukums

FS Jelgava

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tukums

FS Jelgava

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Tukums

FS Jelgava

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature