Tukums are the clear favourites, with a 59 % chance of victory, a 24 % draw probability and only 18 % for Grobiņa to win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total remains 2 goals, a 24 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2 % probability. Tukums, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Grobiņa, on the road, scores only 0.78 and concedes 1.78. Recent form shows Tukums struggling after two straight defeats, losing 0-3 to Auda, and Grobiņa has also suffered three consecutive losses, losing 1-3 to FK Liepāja. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Home +2 handicap (93.5 %), Under 5.5 (92.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (86.7 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.7 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.00
1.31
2.00
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
2.39
1.33
2.22
0.67
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.42
1.29
1.71
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.14
1.21
0.62
2.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.62
1.00
2.00
0.20
4.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.29
1.29
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.0%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Tukums goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.4%
11%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.7%
6.3%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.7%
3.0%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Tukums is 0.62 points worse than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Tukums is 0.39 goals worse than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Tukums is 0.20 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tukums or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Tukums + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums or Grobiņa
75.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Tukums + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grobiņa
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Draw + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tukums over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tukums, so a minus line means Tukums give that many goals of a start and Grobiņa receive them. At -1, Tukums must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tukums win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tukums)
Tukums -2
15.6%
Draw -2
17.2%
Grobiņa +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tukums)
Tukums -1
32.8%
Draw -1
22.4%
Grobiņa +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tukums)
Tukums +1
79.4%
Draw +1
12.5%
Grobiņa -1
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tukums)
Tukums +2
91.9%
Draw +2
5.7%
Grobiņa -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.56
1.00
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.86
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.21
1.21
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.22
0.67
0.89
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.92
0.86
1.14
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.64
0.36
0.31
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.71
0.29
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Tukums and Grobiņa have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Tukums and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Tukums and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Tukums and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Ogre United