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Tukums vs Rīgas FS Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-5
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
15%
22%
63%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L03L02L12L00D22D20W11D02LH·GRO05/04A·RĪG09/04H·RIG13/04A·AUD18/04A·FS 23/04H·BFC30/04H·FK 06/05H·MET11/05A·SUP16/05A·GRO21/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.171.141.930.882.38
vs Stronger (18)1.002.671.142.710.912.64
vs Similar (12)1.001.421.141.140.801.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W41W21W01L10W22D51W12L20WA·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05A·FK 14/05H·MET20/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.031.800.871.601.20
vs Stronger (3)1.001.331.001.33--
vs Similar (7)0.571.710.671.330.502.00
vs Weaker (20)2.200.752.440.562.000.91
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.4%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
7.3%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
4.8%
Tukums goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
01234
05.6%8.9%10%7.3%3.8%
13.5%10%9.9%7.0%3.7%
22.1%4.5%4.8%3.3%1.8%
30.7%1.4%1.5%1.1%0.6%
40.2%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Tukums is 1.42 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
Tukums is 1.69 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
Tukums is 0.67 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L02L01L10W00D21W00D10W01LH·GRO05/04A·RĪG09/04H·RIG13/04A·AUD18/04A·FS 23/04H·BFC30/04H·FK 06/05H·MET11/05A·SUP16/05A·GRO21/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.860.640.501.00
vs Stronger (18)0.611.111.000.860.361.27
vs Similar (12)0.750.420.710.430.800.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W11D00D10W00D20W11D10WA·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05A·FK 14/05H·MET20/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.330.800.330.800.33
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.331.00--
vs Similar (7)0.290.570.330.330.250.75
vs Weaker (20)1.050.151.110.111.000.18
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L02L00D01L20W01L01LH·GRO05/04A·RĪG09/04H·RIG13/04A·AUD18/04A·FS 23/04H·BFC30/04H·FK 06/05H·MET11/05A·SUP16/05A·GRO21/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.330.291.290.381.38
vs Stronger (18)0.391.560.141.860.551.36
vs Similar (12)0.251.000.430.710.001.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D31W10W01L00D22D31W01L10WA·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05A·FK 14/05H·MET20/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.000.530.800.87
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.670.33--
vs Similar (7)0.291.140.331.000.251.25
vs Weaker (20)1.150.601.330.441.000.73
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Tukums's squad is €9m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€2m vs €11m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Tukums's attack is €5m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Tukums's midfield is €1m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€0m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Tukums's defence is €2m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TUK wins
0
Draws
8
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs Rīgas FS · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/25ARīgas FS Vs TUK2-0
20/10/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK4-1
27/07/24HTUK Vs Rīgas FS1-4
25/05/24HTUK Vs Rīgas FS0-1
12/04/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK5-0
21/10/23HTUK Vs Rīgas FS4-5
29/07/23ARīgas FS Vs TUK7-0
09/05/23HTUK Vs Rīgas FS1-7

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/25AGrobiņa Vs TUK2-0
16/05/25ASuper Nova Vs TUK1-1
11/05/25HTUK Vs Metta / LU2-0
06/05/25HTUK Vs FK Liepaja2-2
30/04/25HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
23/04/25AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-1
18/04/25AAuda Vs TUK2-0
13/04/25HTUK Vs Riga0-3
09/04/25ARīgas FS Vs TUK2-0
05/04/25HTUK Vs Grobiņa2-0

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/25HRF Vs Metta / LU2-0
14/05/25AFK Liepaja Vs RF2-1
09/05/25HRF Vs BFC Daugavpils5-1
05/05/25AFS Jelgava Vs RF2-2
01/05/25HRF Vs Auda1-0
26/04/25HRF Vs Riga0-1
20/04/25ASuper Nova Vs RF1-2
15/04/25AGrobiņa Vs RF1-4
09/04/25HRF Vs Tukums2-0
04/04/25AMetta / LU Vs RF1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL0.92
HomeWLDDW1.17
AwayLLLDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals3.062.753.35
Over 1.5 %82%75%88%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded2.061.622.46
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW2.02
HomeWLWWW2.19
AwayLWWDL1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%69%58%
AVG goals3.263.542.96
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %68%65%71%
Over 3.5 %40%46%33%
Scored2.262.691.79
Conceded1.000.851.17
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet34%42%25%
Corners9.449.509.40
Cards3.753.004.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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