PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Tukums vs Rīgas FS Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
18%
21%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Tukums a 18% win probability against Rīgas FS in the Latvia: Virsliga on 2026-07-27, with 21% for the draw and 61% for Rīgas FS. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-2 the most likely scoreline (9.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (87%).

Results analysis

Tukums finished 0-1 against Rīgas FS (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 18% home win, 21% draw and 61% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (87%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W21W01L24L00D10W11D12L13L13LH·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.381.750.931.86
vs Stronger (20)1.052.251.402.200.702.30
vs Similar (7)0.861.000.751.001.001.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.672.501.003.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D22D51W42W50W31W43W31W11D10WH·RIG25/09A·FK 28/09H·MET05/10A·TUK19/10H·GRO26/10A·SUP02/11A·RIG07/11H·BFC30/06H·AUD04/07A·FS 20/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.232.531.332.131.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.141.570.671.331.501.75
vs Weaker (23)2.701.133.001.332.360.91
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
7.3%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
0-3
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.1%
Tukums goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
01234
04.1%6.4%8.2%6.2%3.5%
13.0%9.4%9.7%7.3%4.1%
22.2%5.1%5.7%4.3%2.4%
30.9%2.0%2.2%1.7%1.0%
40.3%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.60
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
Tukums is 2.17 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 2.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.20
Rīgas FS
2.40
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
Tukums is 1.69 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 2.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.40
Rīgas FS
0.60
Auda
0.60
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
Tukums is 1.54 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 0.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D22D00D10W00D11D02L10WH·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.560.880.710.79
vs Stronger (20)0.651.050.701.100.601.00
vs Similar (7)0.570.430.250.501.000.33
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W11D22D30W10W20W10W00D10WH·RIG25/09A·FK 28/09H·MET05/10A·TUK19/10H·GRO26/10A·SUP02/11A·RIG07/11H·BFC30/06H·AUD04/07A·FS 20/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.531.130.730.870.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.430.330.670.500.25
vs Weaker (23)1.170.571.330.751.000.36
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W01L02L00D00D11D01L11D03LH·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.810.880.211.07
vs Stronger (20)0.401.200.701.100.101.30
vs Similar (7)0.290.570.500.500.000.67
vs Weaker (3)2.000.332.000.502.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L40W20W20W21W23L21W11D00DH·RIG25/09A·FK 28/09H·MET05/10A·TUK19/10H·GRO26/10A·SUP02/11A·RIG07/11H·BFC30/06H·AUD04/07A·FS 20/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.701.400.601.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.711.140.330.671.001.50
vs Weaker (23)1.520.571.670.581.360.55
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (24)
€13m
AUD (16)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (9)
€6m
AUD (7)
€2m
BD (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€2m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€5m
AUD (9)
€2m
BD (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TUK wins
0
Draws
8
RF wins

Head-to-head

Tukums vs Rīgas FS · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25HTUK Vs Rīgas FS2-4
26/07/25ARīgas FS Vs TUK6-2
25/05/25HTUK Vs Rīgas FS2-5
09/04/25ARīgas FS Vs TUK2-0
20/10/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK4-1
27/07/24HTUK Vs Rīgas FS1-4
25/05/24HTUK Vs Rīgas FS0-1
12/04/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK5-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26ARiga Vs TUK3-1
05/07/26AGrobiņa Vs TUK3-1
01/07/26HTUK Vs Super Nova1-2
09/11/25HTUK Vs FS Jelgava1-1
02/11/25AAuda Vs TUK0-1
24/10/25ARiga Vs TUK0-0
19/10/25HTUK Vs Rīgas FS2-4
04/10/25AGrobiņa Vs TUK1-0
28/09/25HTUK Vs Super Nova2-1
20/09/25HTUK Vs Metta / LU3-2

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26AFS Jelgava Vs RF0-1
04/07/26HRF Vs Auda1-1
30/06/26HRF Vs BFC Daugavpils3-1
07/11/25ARiga Vs RF3-4
02/11/25ASuper Nova Vs RF1-3
26/10/25HRF Vs Grobiņa5-0
19/10/25ATukums Vs RF2-4
05/10/25HRF Vs Metta / LU5-1
28/09/25AFK Liepaja Vs RF2-2
25/09/25HRF Vs Riga0-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL0.96
HomeWWLDL1.17
AwayLDWLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals3.163.083.23
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored1.141.330.96
Conceded2.021.752.27
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.08
HomeDWWWD2.28
AwayDWWWW1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%72%60%
AVG goals3.363.443.28
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored2.262.482.04
Conceded1.100.961.24
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners7.006.007.50
Cards3.171.674.67

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga515
100%
3.0
162+14
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6253.20.4
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS513
80%
2.6
123+9
3.0
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.6
-
3BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils713
57%
1.9
126+6
2.6
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja612
67%
2.0
137+6
3.3
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
5AudaAuda510
60%
2.0
63+3
1.8
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2021.20.6
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova57
40%
1.4
65+1
2.2
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
7Ogre UnitedOgre United64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
9FS JelgavaFS Jelgava63
17%
0.5
411-7
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
10TukumsTukums73
14%
0.4
515-10
2.9
86%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.1
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches