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Tukums vs Super Nova Result & Analysis

Date: 08/10/2022
Time: 12:00
Final 2-0
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
47%
28%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L12L02L16L21W13L31W00D21W10WA·AUD18/07A·SUP23/07H·RĪG30/07A·VAL06/08H·FK 20/08A·RIG28/08A·SPA03/09A·BFC10/09A·MET17/09H·AUD01/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.931.001.931.061.94
vs Stronger (16)0.622.690.752.750.502.62
vs Similar (14)1.501.071.330.831.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L21W32W32W10W07L03L22D03L14LA·RIG17/07H·TUK23/07A·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.130.672.130.672.13
vs Stronger (18)0.672.780.882.880.502.70
vs Similar (12)0.671.170.431.291.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.1%
Tukums goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
01234
08.2%6.4%4.1%1.5%0.4%
19.8%13%6.5%2.4%0.6%
28.6%9.4%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.5%4.9%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.8%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Tukums is 0.50 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Tukums is 0.39 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Tukums is 0.33 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L00D04L21W02L11D00D11D10WA·AUD18/07A·SUP23/07H·RĪG30/07A·VAL06/08H·FK 20/08A·RIG28/08A·SPA03/09A·BFC10/09A·MET17/09H·AUD01/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.070.571.070.381.06
vs Stronger (16)0.251.380.501.380.001.38
vs Similar (14)0.710.710.670.670.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W22D11D00D03L00D10W01L11DA·RIG17/07H·TUK23/07A·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.330.730.401.07
vs Stronger (18)0.331.170.501.000.201.30
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.140.430.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D02L12L00D11D20W00D10W00DA·AUD18/07A·SUP23/07H·RĪG30/07A·VAL06/08H·FK 20/08A·RIG28/08A·SPA03/09A·BFC10/09A·MET17/09H·AUD01/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.430.860.690.88
vs Stronger (16)0.381.310.251.380.501.25
vs Similar (14)0.790.360.670.170.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D10W21W10W04L03L12L02L03LA·RIG17/07H·TUK23/07A·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.230.331.400.271.07
vs Stronger (18)0.331.610.381.880.301.40
vs Similar (12)0.250.670.290.860.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
TUK wins
1
Draws
1
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs Super Nova · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/22ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-1
14/05/22HTUK Vs Super Nova1-1
07/04/22ASuper Nova Vs TUK0-1

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22HTUK Vs Auda1-0
17/09/22AMetta / LU Vs TUK1-2
10/09/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK0-0
03/09/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs TUK1-3
28/08/22ARiga Vs TUK3-1
20/08/22HTUK Vs FK Liepaja2-1
06/08/22AValmiera / BSS Vs TUK6-1
30/07/22HTUK Vs Rīgas FS0-2
23/07/22ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-1
18/07/22AAuda Vs TUK3-0

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/22HSN Vs Riga1-4
18/09/22AAuda Vs SN3-0
11/09/22HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-2
04/09/22HSN Vs Metta / LU0-3
27/08/22AValmiera / BSS Vs SN7-0
20/08/22HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
07/08/22ARīgas FS Vs SN2-3
30/07/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs SN2-3
23/07/22HSN Vs Tukums2-1
17/07/22ARiga Vs SN1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.10
HomeWWLWW1.21
AwayLLWDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%36%31%
AVG goals2.972.933.00
Over 1.5 %73%71%75%
Over 2.5 %63%50%75%
Over 3.5 %27%21%31%
Scored1.031.001.06
Conceded1.931.931.94
BTTS47%36%56%
Clean Sheet17%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.60
HomeWWLDL0.60
AwayLWWLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%13%13%
AVG goals2.802.802.80
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %53%67%40%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored0.670.670.67
Conceded2.132.132.13
BTTS43%47%40%
Clean Sheet13%20%7%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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