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Tukums vs Super Nova Result & Analysis

Date: 01/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
38%
27%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L14L32W21W01L24L00D10W11DA·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.771.311.810.861.71
vs Stronger (17)0.942.411.332.560.502.25
vs Similar (13)1.310.921.290.861.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W26L12L23L12L11D00D22D13L30WA·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.601.191.621.211.57
vs Stronger (14)1.362.431.252.621.502.17
vs Similar (16)1.060.881.120.621.001.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.9%
Tukums goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
01234
06.5%6.5%5.5%2.7%1.0%
16.8%13%8.2%4.0%1.4%
25.9%8.5%6.1%2.9%1.1%
33.0%4.2%3.1%1.5%0.5%
41.1%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Tukums is 0.96 points worse than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Tukums is 0.42 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Tukums is 1.38 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L11D01L00D22D00D10W00DA·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.500.940.710.71
vs Stronger (17)0.651.240.781.440.501.00
vs Similar (13)0.540.310.140.291.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W13L01L12L10W00D00D01L01L20WA·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.560.750.291.00
vs Stronger (14)0.571.360.621.250.501.50
vs Similar (16)0.310.440.500.250.120.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L21W20W01L02L00D00D11DA·FS 23/08H·BFC30/08A·FK 14/09H·MET20/09H·SUP28/09A·GRO04/10H·RĪG19/10A·RIG24/10A·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.810.880.141.00
vs Stronger (17)0.291.180.561.110.001.25
vs Similar (13)0.770.621.140.570.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W13L11D11D02L11D00D21W12L10WA·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.620.880.930.57
vs Stronger (14)0.791.070.621.381.000.67
vs Similar (16)0.750.440.620.380.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Tukums and Super Nova have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
TUK wins
2
Draws
2
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs Super Nova · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25HTUK Vs Super Nova2-1
06/07/25ASuper Nova Vs TUK1-0
16/05/25ASuper Nova Vs TUK1-1
31/03/25HTUK Vs Super Nova2-2
17/09/23HTUK Vs Super Nova1-0
30/06/23ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-5
27/05/23HTUK Vs Super Nova3-2
19/03/23ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HTUK Vs FS Jelgava1-1
02/11/25AAuda Vs TUK0-1
24/10/25ARiga Vs TUK0-0
19/10/25HTUK Vs Rīgas FS2-4
04/10/25AGrobiņa Vs TUK1-0
28/09/25HTUK Vs Super Nova2-1
20/09/25HTUK Vs Metta / LU3-2
14/09/25AFK Liepaja Vs TUK4-1
30/08/25HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
23/08/25AFS Jelgava Vs TUK1-1

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0
04/10/25HSN Vs FS Jelgava1-1
28/09/25ATukums Vs SN2-1
22/09/25AAuda Vs SN3-2
14/09/25AMetta / LU Vs SN2-1
30/08/25HSN Vs Riga2-6
25/08/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD0.98
HomeLWWLD1.12
AwayDLLDW0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals3.143.243.04
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %36%44%28%
Scored1.101.280.92
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLW1.38
HomeDLDLW1.64
AwayLLLDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.782.842.72
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.581.721.44
Conceded1.201.121.28
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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