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Turan vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 28/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
Turan
Turan
Vs
42%
28%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan winâś“ Hit
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz winâś— Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W03L20W13L30W22D00D01L12L22DA·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SĆŹB26/08A·SAB01/09H·QAB17/09A·SUM23/09H·NEF30/09A·ZIR06/10H·QAR20/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.371.361.641.251.12
vs Stronger (7)1.431.861.332.331.501.50
vs Similar (17)1.241.241.251.381.221.11
vs Weaker (6)1.331.171.671.671.000.67
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L11D12L03L22D01L01L00DH·NEF06/08A·ZIR12/08H·TUR18/08A·QAR27/08H·ARA03/09H·SĆŹB16/09A·SAB24/09H·QAB01/10A·SUM08/10H·ZIR21/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.470.881.440.931.50
vs Stronger (19)0.891.580.801.401.001.78
vs Similar (11)0.911.271.001.500.801.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.5%
Turan goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
07.8%6.9%5.0%2.0%0.6%
18.6%13%7.4%3.0%0.9%
27.3%9.0%5.5%2.3%0.7%
33.7%4.5%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Turan is 0.36 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W01L10W00D00D00D01L01LA·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SĆŹB26/08A·SAB01/09H·QAB17/09A·SUM23/09H·NEF30/09A·ZIR06/10H·QAR20/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.710.710.440.50
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.331.330.500.50
vs Similar (17)0.530.530.880.620.220.44
vs Weaker (6)0.830.500.670.331.000.67
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L01L02L02L11D00D00D00DH·NEF06/08A·ZIR12/08H·TUR18/08A·QAR27/08H·ARA03/09H·SĆŹB16/09A·SAB24/09H·QAB01/10A·SUM08/10H·ZIR21/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.500.690.570.57
vs Stronger (19)0.530.740.500.800.560.67
vs Similar (11)0.550.450.500.500.600.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L00D12L20W22D00D01L11D21WA·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SĆŹB26/08A·SAB01/09H·QAB17/09A·SUM23/09H·NEF30/09A·ZIR06/10H·QAR20/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.640.930.810.62
vs Stronger (7)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.710.380.751.000.67
vs Weaker (6)0.500.671.001.330.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D10W10W01L11D01L01L00DH·NEF06/08A·ZIR12/08H·TUR18/08A·QAR27/08H·ARA03/09H·SĆŹB16/09A·SAB24/09H·QAB01/10A·SUM08/10H·ZIR21/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.380.750.360.93
vs Stronger (19)0.370.840.300.600.441.11
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.501.000.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.8%-------âś“ Hit
Under 3.570.9%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SĆŹB (4)
€1m
Turan's squad is €5m more valuable than Kapaz's (€10m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SĆŹB (0)
€0m
Turan's attack is €2m more valuable than Kapaz's (€3m vs €1m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SĆŹB (1)
€0m
Turan and Kapaz have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SĆŹB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €2m more valuable than Kapaz's (€5m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
TUR wins
1
Draws
1
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Kapaz · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/23AKapaz Vs TUR0-2
15/04/23AKapaz Vs TUR1-0
11/02/23HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0
13/11/22AKapaz Vs TUR0-0
09/09/22HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/23HTUR Vs Qarabag2-2
06/10/23AZira Vs TUR2-1
30/09/23HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
23/09/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0
17/09/23HTUR Vs Qabala2-2
01/09/23ASabah FA Vs TUR0-3
26/08/23HTUR Vs Səbail1-3
18/08/23AKapaz Vs TUR0-2
13/08/23AQarabag Vs TUR3-0
04/08/23AAraz Vs TUR0-3

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HKAP Vs Zira0-0
08/10/23ASumqayıt Vs KAP1-0
01/10/23HKAP Vs Qabala0-1
24/09/23ASabah FA Vs KAP2-2
16/09/23HKAP Vs Səbail0-3
03/09/23HKAP Vs Araz1-2
27/08/23AQarabag Vs KAP1-1
18/08/23HKAP Vs Turan0-2
12/08/23AZira Vs KAP1-0
06/08/23HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD1.11
HomeDLDLD0.82
AwayLWWDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%18%38%
AVG goals2.432.822.08
Over 1.5 %72%82%62%
Over 2.5 %48%45%50%
Over 3.5 %30%45%17%
Scored1.091.181.00
Conceded1.351.641.08
BTTS41%50%33%
Clean Sheet35%18%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD0.80
HomeLLLLD1.00
AwayDLDDL0.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%25%5%
AVG goals2.482.212.77
Over 1.5 %72%62%82%
Over 2.5 %43%46%41%
Over 3.5 %26%17%36%
Scored0.850.830.86
Conceded1.631.381.91
BTTS50%38%64%
Clean Sheet15%25%5%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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