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Turan vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 26/05/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Turan
Turan
Vs
49%
23%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan winâś“ Hit
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz winâś— Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W13L11D20W21W14L03L12L10W34LH·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SĆŹB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04A·NEF28/04H·ZIR05/05A·ARA11/05A·QAR17/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.571.811.441.001.71
vs Stronger (6)1.832.171.752.002.002.50
vs Similar (19)1.161.471.501.400.781.56
vs Weaker (5)2.001.203.500.501.001.67
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D12L16L21W33D12L10W11D15L01LH·NEF09/03A·ZIR16/03H·QAR29/03A·ARA05/04A·SĆŹB14/04H·SAB21/04A·QAB28/04H·SUM04/05A·NEF10/05H·ZIR18/05
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.001.071.931.332.07
vs Stronger (18)1.172.441.222.001.112.89
vs Similar (12)1.251.330.831.831.670.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.6%
No
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-0 âś“
5.3%
3-2
4.5%
Turan goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
04.0%3.6%3.4%1.7%0.6%
15.3%10%6.7%3.3%1.2%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
34.1%6.1%4.5%2.2%0.8%
42.1%3.1%2.3%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Turan is 0.36 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D10W00D02L02L01L00D01LH·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SĆŹB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04A·NEF28/04H·ZIR05/05A·ARA11/05A·QAR17/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.560.560.430.64
vs Stronger (6)0.831.001.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (19)0.260.530.300.500.220.56
vs Weaker (5)1.000.401.000.001.000.67
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L01L20W02L10W00D12L00DH·NEF09/03A·ZIR16/03H·QAR29/03A·ARA05/04A·SĆŹB14/04H·SAB21/04A·QAB28/04H·SUM04/05A·NEF10/05H·ZIR18/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.830.470.870.600.80
vs Stronger (18)0.441.110.440.890.441.33
vs Similar (12)0.670.420.500.830.830.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L00D10W21W12L01L11D10W33DH·ARA10/03H·QAR17/03A·SĆŹB30/03H·SAB06/04A·QAB13/04H·SUM19/04A·NEF28/04H·ZIR05/05A·ARA11/05A·QAR17/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.971.250.880.571.07
vs Stronger (6)1.001.170.751.001.501.50
vs Similar (19)0.890.951.200.900.561.00
vs Weaker (5)1.000.802.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D12L15L20W13L10W00D11D03L01LH·NEF09/03A·ZIR16/03H·QAR29/03A·ARA05/04A·SĆŹB14/04H·SAB21/04A·QAB28/04H·SUM04/05A·NEF10/05H·ZIR18/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.170.601.070.731.27
vs Stronger (18)0.721.330.781.110.671.56
vs Similar (12)0.580.920.331.000.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SĆŹB (4)
€1m
Turan's squad is €5m more valuable than Kapaz's (€10m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SĆŹB (0)
€0m
Turan's attack is €2m more valuable than Kapaz's (€3m vs €1m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SĆŹB (1)
€0m
Turan and Kapaz have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SĆŹB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €2m more valuable than Kapaz's (€5m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
TUR wins
1
Draws
2
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Kapaz · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
22/01/24AKapaz Vs TUR2-1
28/10/23HTUR Vs Kapaz4-0
18/08/23AKapaz Vs TUR0-2
15/04/23AKapaz Vs TUR1-0
11/02/23HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0
13/11/22AKapaz Vs TUR0-0
09/09/22HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/24AQarabag Vs TUR4-3
11/05/24AAraz Vs TUR0-1
05/05/24HTUR Vs Zira1-2
28/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR3-0
19/04/24HTUR Vs Sumqayıt1-4
13/04/24AQabala Vs TUR1-2
06/04/24HTUR Vs Sabah FA2-0
30/03/24ASəbail Vs TUR1-1
17/03/24HTUR Vs Qarabag1-3
10/03/24HTUR Vs Araz2-0

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/24HKAP Vs Zira0-1
10/05/24ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP5-1
04/05/24HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-1
28/04/24AQabala Vs KAP0-1
21/04/24HKAP Vs Sabah FA1-2
14/04/24ASəbail Vs KAP3-3
05/04/24AAraz Vs KAP1-2
29/03/24HKAP Vs Qarabag1-6
16/03/24AZira Vs KAP2-1
09/03/24HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.28
HomeWLWLL1.36
AwayDWLWL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.963.162.76
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %38%52%24%
Scored1.461.681.24
Conceded1.501.481.52
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.04
HomeDLLDL1.04
AwayLWDWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.862.723.00
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.081.001.16
Conceded1.781.721.84
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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