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Turan vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Turan
Turan
Vs
68%
21%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Turan’s 68 % chance of victory makes them the clear favourite, a figure driven by their solid home form and the fact that Karvan’s away record is weak, conceding two goals per game. The model therefore picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13 % probability. Turan’s home scoring average of 1.22 and conceding 0.78 goals per game against similar opposition contrasts sharply with Karvan’s away average of 0.71 scored and 2.0 conceded, underscoring the home side’s advantage. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals at 77.9 %. Turan’s home win probability is 68 %, a draw 21 %, and an away win 11 %. The model’s selections include the Over 1.5 goal pick, with no edge percentage to report.

Results analysis

The win extends Turan’s recent run, as they finished the match 1-0 to secure a home victory. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 68 % probability, and it proved correct. The pre-match favourite was called correctly, and the final score matched the actual result of a home win. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, with a 77.9 % probability, missed. Turan’s 1-0 win was the most likely score, with a 13 % chance, and the match’s total of two goals was the most probable total, with a 25 % probability. The outcome was a straightforward home win, confirming the model’s prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan win✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D32W02L11D21W30W00D11D12LA·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04A·ARA17/04A·ZIR21/04H·ZIR27/04A·QAR04/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.701.231.001.590.47
vs Stronger (4)0.752.001.002.500.501.50
vs Similar (20)1.600.551.220.781.910.36
vs Weaker (6)1.330.331.500.501.250.25
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-702L11D11D12L01L07L41W10W02L03LH·ARA21/02A·QAB28/02H·SUM07/03A·ARA13/03H·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.100.881.880.432.36
vs Stronger (13)0.312.460.502.170.142.71
vs Similar (17)0.941.821.101.700.712.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.0%
1-0 ✓
11.6%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.6%
Turan goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
07.0%3.5%1.6%0.4%0.1%
112%10%3.4%0.8%0.2%
213%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
39.0%6.6%2.4%0.6%0.1%
44.6%3.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Turan is 1.33 points better than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 0.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Turan is 0.64 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.70).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Turan is 1.18 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D00D01L10W00D00D10W00DA·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04A·ARA17/04A·ZIR21/04H·ZIR27/04A·QAR04/05
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.200.690.230.530.18
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
vs Similar (20)0.700.150.780.110.640.18
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.500.500.500.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D00D02L00D05L20W10W00D01LH·ARA21/02A·QAB28/02H·SUM07/03A·ARA13/03H·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.440.620.291.21
vs Stronger (13)0.151.000.330.670.001.29
vs Similar (17)0.530.820.500.600.571.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D21W02L10W11D30W00D01L12LA·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04A·ARA17/04A·ZIR21/04H·ZIR27/04A·QAR04/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.500.540.771.060.29
vs Stronger (4)0.501.500.502.000.501.00
vs Similar (20)0.900.400.440.671.270.18
vs Weaker (6)0.830.171.000.000.750.25
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D10W01L02L21W00D02L02LH·ARA21/02A·QAB28/02H·SUM07/03A·ARA13/03H·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.200.441.250.141.14
vs Stronger (13)0.151.460.171.500.141.43
vs Similar (17)0.411.000.601.100.140.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
TUR wins
0
Draws
0
KAR wins

Head-to-head

Turan vs Karvan · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
09/02/26HTUR Vs Karvan1-0
24/10/25AKarvan Vs TUR1-2

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/26AQarabag Vs TUR2-1
27/04/26HTUR Vs Zira1-1
21/04/26AZira Vs TUR0-0
17/04/26AAraz Vs TUR0-3
12/04/26HTUR Vs Sumqayıt2-1
07/04/26AImisli FK Vs TUR1-1
03/04/26HTUR Vs Zira0-2
21/03/26HTUR Vs Qabala3-2
15/03/26AKapaz Vs TUR1-1
09/03/26ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR0-1

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/26HKAR Vs Neftchi Baku0-3
27/04/26ASabah FA Vs KAR2-0
18/04/26HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
10/04/26HKAR Vs Kapaz4-1
06/04/26AQarabag Vs KAR7-0
19/03/26HKAR Vs Zira0-1
13/03/26AAraz Vs KAR2-1
07/03/26HKAR Vs Sumqayıt1-1
28/02/26AQabala Vs KAR1-1
21/02/26HKAR Vs Araz0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.76
HomeDWLWD1.67
AwayDDWDL1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.102.461.77
Over 1.5 %66%75%58%
Over 2.5 %40%54%27%
Over 3.5 %10%17%4%
Scored1.301.331.27
Conceded0.801.120.50
BTTS42%54%31%
Clean Sheet48%38%58%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL0.90
HomeDLWWL1.15
AwayLDLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%31%12%
AVG goals2.963.002.92
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.141.420.83
Conceded1.821.582.08
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet12%15%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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