PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Turan vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Turan
Turan
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L22D23L10W31W12L31W11D21W00DA·QAB25/11H·SUM02/12A·NEF10/12H·ZIR16/12H·ARA24/12A·KAP22/01H·SƏB26/01A·SAB03/02H·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.432.001.431.251.44
vs Stronger (7)1.292.001.332.331.251.75
vs Similar (15)1.671.202.001.001.381.38
vs Weaker (8)1.751.382.501.501.001.25
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W32W02L20W00D31W12L01L10WH·ARA26/11H·ZIR03/12H·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.001.330.931.131.07
vs Stronger (4)0.502.250.502.500.502.00
vs Similar (14)1.000.711.290.570.710.86
vs Weaker (12)1.750.921.670.831.831.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.7%
Turan goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
08.8%8.0%5.7%2.4%0.7%
18.9%14%7.8%3.2%1.0%
26.9%8.5%5.3%2.2%0.7%
33.1%3.8%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Turan is 0.22 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Turan is 0.06 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Turan is 0.36 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D00D20W11D10W11D10W00DA·QAB25/11H·SUM02/12A·NEF10/12H·ZIR16/12H·ARA24/12A·KAP22/01H·SƏB26/01A·SAB03/02H·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.790.570.500.50
vs Stronger (7)0.571.140.671.670.500.75
vs Similar (15)0.530.330.860.290.250.38
vs Weaker (8)0.880.380.750.251.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D00D10W00D00D02L00D10WH·ARA26/11H·ZIR03/12H·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.600.270.330.60
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.001.000.500.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.360.710.140.290.57
vs Weaker (12)0.500.500.670.170.330.83
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L20W12L10W11D01L21W00D11D00DA·QAB25/11H·SUM02/12A·NEF10/12H·ZIR16/12H·ARA24/12A·KAP22/01H·SƏB26/01A·SAB03/02H·QAB13/02A·SUM18/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.901.210.860.750.94
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.670.670.751.00
vs Similar (15)1.130.871.140.711.121.00
vs Weaker (8)0.881.001.751.250.000.75
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W21W02L10W00D31W10W01L00DH·ARA26/11H·ZIR03/12H·TUR10/12A·QAR18/12H·KAP24/12A·SAB21/01H·QAB28/01A·SUM04/02A·ARA13/02H·ZIR18/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.730.670.800.47
vs Stronger (4)0.251.750.501.500.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.360.570.430.430.29
vs Weaker (12)1.250.421.000.671.500.17
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Turan's squad is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€10m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Turan and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Turan and Neftchi Baku have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
TUR wins
1
Draws
4
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR3-2
30/09/23HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
07/05/23HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku4-0
05/03/23ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR4-0
15/12/22HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
08/10/22ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR0-0

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/24ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0
13/02/24HTUR Vs Qabala2-1
03/02/24ASabah FA Vs TUR1-1
26/01/24HTUR Vs Səbail3-1
22/01/24AKapaz Vs TUR2-1
24/12/23HTUR Vs Araz3-1
16/12/23HTUR Vs Zira1-0
10/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR3-2
02/12/23HTUR Vs Sumqayıt2-2
25/11/23AQabala Vs TUR4-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/24HNB Vs Zira1-0
13/02/24AAraz Vs NB1-0
04/02/24ASumqayıt Vs NB2-1
28/01/24HNB Vs Qabala3-1
21/01/24ASabah FA Vs NB0-0
24/12/23HNB Vs Kapaz2-0
18/12/23AQarabag Vs NB2-0
10/12/23HNB Vs Turan3-2
03/12/23HNB Vs Zira1-0
26/11/23HNB Vs Araz1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.14
HomeDWWWW1.20
AwayLLLDD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.723.002.44
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %36%52%20%
Scored1.281.521.04
Conceded1.441.481.40
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet28%20%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.62
HomeWWWWW1.88
AwayWLDLL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%33%
AVG goals2.422.692.12
Over 1.5 %72%81%62%
Over 2.5 %38%46%29%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.381.651.08
Conceded1.041.041.04
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners10.2511.509.00
Cards5.005.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches