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Turan vs Qabala Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2023
Time: 12:30
Final 2-2
Turan
Turan
Vs
44%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W40W21W22D13L30W03L20W13L30WA·ZIR01/05H·NEF07/05A·QAB13/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAR28/05A·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SƏB26/08A·SAB01/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.141.711.251.12
vs Stronger (8)1.001.750.502.001.501.50
vs Similar (15)1.331.401.291.571.381.25
vs Weaker (7)1.141.001.671.670.750.50
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L00D11D23L14L05L02L12L02L10WH·TUR13/05A·ŞAM22/05H·KAP27/05H·OMO27/07A·OMO03/08A·SAB06/08A·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.731.361.361.002.06
vs Stronger (15)0.872.201.001.670.782.56
vs Similar (15)1.471.271.621.121.291.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.3%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
0-1
5.7%
Turan goals ↓
Qabala goals →
01234
06.3%5.7%4.5%2.0%0.6%
17.4%12%7.4%3.2%1.1%
27.0%9.2%6.1%2.7%0.9%
33.9%5.1%3.3%1.5%0.5%
41.6%2.1%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Turan is 0.61 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Turan is 0.64 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Turan is 0.31 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W00D10W01L00D01L20W01L10WA·ZIR01/05H·NEF07/05A·QAB13/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAR28/05A·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SƏB26/08A·SAB01/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.790.930.440.44
vs Stronger (8)0.380.880.251.250.500.50
vs Similar (15)0.670.671.141.000.250.38
vs Weaker (7)0.710.430.670.330.750.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W11D03L03L01L02L01L10WH·TUR13/05A·ŞAM22/05H·KAP27/05H·OMO27/07A·OMO03/08A·SAB06/08A·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.710.360.440.94
vs Stronger (15)0.530.870.500.330.561.22
vs Similar (15)0.600.470.880.380.290.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W21W12L12L30W02L00D12L20WA·ZIR01/05H·NEF07/05A·QAB13/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAR28/05A·ARA04/08A·QAR13/08A·KAP18/08H·SƏB26/08A·SAB01/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.360.790.810.69
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.250.751.001.00
vs Similar (15)0.670.730.140.571.120.88
vs Weaker (7)0.430.571.001.330.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L12L11D02L01L10W01L00DH·TUR13/05A·ŞAM22/05H·KAP27/05H·OMO27/07A·OMO03/08A·SAB06/08A·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.070.641.000.561.12
vs Stronger (15)0.331.330.501.330.221.33
vs Similar (15)0.870.800.750.751.000.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Turan's squad is €6m more valuable than Qabala's (€10m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Turan's attack is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Turan and Qabala have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€5m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
TUR wins
2
Draws
1
QAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Qabala · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/23AQabala Vs TUR1-2
11/03/23HTUR Vs Qabala1-1
24/12/22AQabala Vs TUR0-0
08/08/22HTUR Vs Qabala0-2

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/23ASabah FA Vs TUR0-3
26/08/23HTUR Vs Səbail1-3
18/08/23AKapaz Vs TUR0-2
13/08/23AQarabag Vs TUR3-0
04/08/23AAraz Vs TUR0-3
28/05/23AQarabag Vs TUR3-1
22/05/23HTUR Vs Səbail2-2
13/05/23AQabala Vs TUR1-2
07/05/23HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku4-0
01/05/23AZira Vs TUR1-3

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23HQAB Vs Zira1-0
27/08/23ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB2-0
19/08/23HQAB Vs Sumqayıt1-2
12/08/23AAraz Vs QAB2-0
06/08/23ASabah FA Vs QAB5-0
03/08/23AOmonia Nicosia Vs QAB4-1
27/07/23HQAB Vs Omonia Nicosia2-3
27/05/23HQAB Vs Kapaz1-1
22/05/23AŞamaxı FK Vs QAB0-0
13/05/23HQAB Vs Turan1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.17
HomeDLWDL0.84
AwayLWLWW1.45
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%21%41%
AVG goals2.442.792.14
Over 1.5 %73%84%64%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %29%42%18%
Scored1.101.161.05
Conceded1.341.631.09
BTTS39%47%32%
Clean Sheet37%21%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.24
HomeLDLLW1.55
AwayDLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%45%22%
AVG goals2.782.503.04
Over 1.5 %82%73%91%
Over 2.5 %58%55%61%
Over 3.5 %27%18%35%
Scored1.221.271.17
Conceded1.561.231.87
BTTS60%59%61%
Clean Sheet20%27%13%
Corners10.0013.007.00
Cards5.006.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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