Turan is expected to come out on top against Qabala, with a predicted score of 1-1, although this scoreline is just 13.2% likely. The match is expected to see an average of 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being 2. The home side, Turan, has been struggling at home recently, having lost two straight matches, including a 1-2 defeat to Sabah FA. They have a record of scoring 1.12 goals and conceding 0.38 when facing opponents of similar strength at home. Qabala, on the other hand, has been in good form away from home, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 1.17 when facing similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a 52% probability of occurring. The model also suggests the selection "Under 3.5" with 76.8% probability and "Over 1.5" with 71.4% probability. Turan has a 52% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Turan secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Qabala, extending their recent form storyline. The win was a testament to the home side's growing confidence, having come off a win and boasting an impressive 1.88 average goals scored at home. The model correctly predicted the home win, with a 52% probability of Turan emerging victorious. The model's selection, the home win, proved correct. The model also suggested a few other selections, including Under 3.5 goals, which hit with a 76.8% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, which missed with a 71.4% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.89
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.11
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.15
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.35
1xBet
3.28
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Qabala win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 3.81
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.20
Dafabet
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Pinnacle
3.92
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.77
1.21
0.93
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
0.67
1.27
0.73
1.30
0.60
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.41
1.47
0.85
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.83
1.83
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.19
1.33
1.44
1.43
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.4%
@ 1.38+4.8%
Under 1.5
28.6%
@ 2.76-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
1xBet
2.81
BetVictor
2.80
888Sport
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.3%
@ 2.17+2.0%
Under 2.5
55.7%
@ 1.59-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
888Sport
2.25
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Bet365
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.2%
@ 4.09+0.6%
Under 3.5
76.8%
@ 1.19-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Under
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
@ 1.95+0.9%
No
52.2%
@ 1.72-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
No
Betfair
1.80
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.84+5.8%
1-0 ✓
12.2%@ 5.67+4.6%
2-0
10.4%@ 7.91+5.0%
0-0
9.8%@ 7.52+4.1%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.98+3.9%
0-1
6.5%@ 8.58+1.5%
3-0
5.4%@ 15.51+2.6%
1-2
5.4%@ 12.01+1.8%
Turan goals ↓
Qabala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
6.5%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.4%
4.8%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Turan is 0.91 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Turan is 0.33 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Turan is 0.62 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.64
0.29
0.50
0.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.29
0.82
0.18
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.76
0.71
0.15
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.92
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.62
0.89
0.89
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.57
0.64
1.00
0.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.38
0.45
0.55
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.65
0.76
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.56
0.44
0.56
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.8%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.4%
1.38
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Turan's squad is €6m more valuable than Qabala's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Turan's attack is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Turan and Qabala have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Turan's defence is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€5m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Araz
Sumqayıt