The model favours an away win, with a 48 % chance for Sabah FA to triumph over Turan. The overall shape of the match points to a modestly high scoring game, with an expected total of 2.8 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals at a 25 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8 % chance. Turan, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded, while Sabah FA, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.9 scored and 0.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 77.3 % probability, and Under 3.5 with a 70.1 % probability. Home win probability is 25 %, draw 27 %, and away win 48 %. The recent form narrative shows Turan coming off a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Şəmmaxı FK, whereas Sabah FA is entering the match after a 1-2 loss to Hapoel Beer Sheva. This context underscores the likelihood of Sabah FA capitalising on Turan’s defensive frailties.
Results analysis
The match saw Sabah FA extend their winning run, with the final score 1-2 confirming an away victory. The model had picked an away win with a 48 % probability, and it proved correct. The selections Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 both hit, with probabilities of 77.3 % and 70.1 % respectively. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.8 %, but the 1-2 result matched the second-most likely option. Turan’s recent form had only one win in five, while Sabah’s form showed two wins in five after a defeat. The predicted total of 2.8 goals was close to the actual 3 goals scored.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✓ Hit
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.23
0.85
1.53
0.65
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.58
1.20
0.70
1.44
0.44
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.87
2.06
0.75
2.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.30
1.83
1.17
2.25
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
2.55
0.65
2.20
0.50
2.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2 ✓
9.5%
0-1
9.2%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.3%
Turan goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
9.2%
8.5%
4.7%
1.9%
1
5.9%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
2.1%
2
4.0%
6.5%
5.3%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.5%
2.4%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Turan is 0.58 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 2.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Turan is 0.94 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Turan is 0.06 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.27
0.69
0.23
0.47
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.16
0.80
0.10
0.33
0.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.30
0.88
0.31
1.21
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.83
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.15
1.20
0.00
1.10
0.30
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.54
0.62
1.06
0.35
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.42
0.40
0.60
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.57
1.19
0.44
1.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
1.50
0.33
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Neftchi Baku
Zira
Araz
Sumqayıt
Şamaxı FK
Imisli FK
Qabala
Kapaz
Karvan
Mingəçevir