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Turan vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 16/03/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 1-2
Turan
Turan
Vs
49%
31%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turan win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D25L21W11D12L10W10W02L11DA·ZIR15/12H·NEF21/12A·KAP19/01A·QAR26/01H·SƏB01/02A·SAB09/02H·ARA16/02A·ŞAM23/02H·ZIR04/03A·NEF10/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.131.470.871.531.40
vs Stronger (8)1.381.380.670.671.801.80
vs Similar (14)1.140.931.141.001.140.86
vs Weaker (8)2.251.252.400.802.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D00D00D01L03L01L04L02L30WH·SƏB18/01A·SAB25/01H·ARA01/02A·SAB05/02A·ŞAM09/02H·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.330.941.380.291.29
vs Stronger (14)0.431.860.431.710.432.00
vs Similar (16)0.810.881.331.110.140.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.2%
Under 1.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.9%
Under 2.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.6%
0-0
14.0%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
8.2%
3-0
4.9%
1-2 ✓
4.6%
Turan goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
014%8.2%3.5%0.9%0.2%
116%14%4.6%1.1%0.2%
211%8.2%3.0%0.7%0.1%
34.9%3.6%1.3%0.3%0.1%
41.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Turan is 0.61 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 0.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Turan is 0.39 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L22D01L10W10W00D10W01L00DA·ZIR15/12H·NEF21/12A·KAP19/01A·QAR26/01H·SƏB01/02A·SAB09/02H·ARA16/02A·ŞAM23/02H·ZIR04/03A·NEF10/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.730.400.800.47
vs Stronger (8)0.500.500.330.330.600.60
vs Similar (14)0.500.430.290.710.710.14
vs Weaker (8)1.500.381.600.001.331.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D02L00D00D02L10WH·SƏB18/01A·SAB25/01H·ARA01/02A·SAB05/02A·ŞAM09/02H·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.530.440.560.140.50
vs Stronger (14)0.290.710.290.710.290.71
vs Similar (16)0.310.380.560.440.000.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W03L20W01L02L10W00D01L11DA·ZIR15/12H·NEF21/12A·KAP19/01A·QAR26/01H·SƏB01/02A·SAB09/02H·ARA16/02A·ŞAM23/02H·ZIR04/03A·NEF10/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.730.470.730.93
vs Stronger (8)0.880.880.330.331.201.20
vs Similar (14)0.640.500.860.290.430.71
vs Weaker (8)0.750.880.800.800.671.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D00D00D01L01L01L04L00D20WH·SƏB18/01A·SAB25/01H·ARA01/02A·SAB05/02A·ŞAM09/02H·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.800.500.810.140.79
vs Stronger (14)0.141.140.141.000.141.29
vs Similar (16)0.500.500.780.670.140.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar squad value (both €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Turan's defence is €1m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€5m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TUR wins
3
Draws
3
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Turan vs Sumqayıt · H/A from TUR
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24ASumqayıt Vs TUR2-4
11/08/24HTUR Vs Sumqayıt1-0
19/04/24HTUR Vs Sumqayıt1-4
18/02/24ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0
02/12/23HTUR Vs Sumqayıt2-2
23/09/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR0-0
31/03/23HTUR Vs Sumqayıt2-3
30/01/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR2-1

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/25ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR1-1
04/03/25HTUR Vs Zira0-2
23/02/25AŞamaxı FK Vs TUR0-1
16/02/25HTUR Vs Araz1-0
09/02/25ASabah FA Vs TUR2-1
01/02/25HTUR Vs Səbail1-1
26/01/25AQarabag Vs TUR1-2
19/01/25AKapaz Vs TUR5-2
21/12/24HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
15/12/24AZira Vs TUR0-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/25HSUM Vs Kapaz3-0
03/03/25HSUM Vs Qarabag0-2
27/02/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-4
21/02/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-0
15/02/25HSUM Vs Zira0-3
09/02/25AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-0
05/02/25ASabah FA Vs SUM0-0
01/02/25HSUM Vs Araz0-0
25/01/25ASabah FA Vs SUM0-0
18/01/25HSUM Vs Səbail0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.60
HomeWDDWL1.88
AwayLWLWD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%54%29%
AVG goals2.682.652.71
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.461.581.33
Conceded1.221.081.38
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.22
HomeDLLLW1.48
AwayDDDLL0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%17%
AVG goals1.922.111.70
Over 1.5 %54%63%43%
Over 2.5 %30%41%17%
Over 3.5 %14%11%17%
Scored0.780.960.57
Conceded1.141.151.13
BTTS32%33%30%
Clean Sheet38%41%35%
Corners10.506.0015.00
Cards7.0010.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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