Defensive solidity will set the tone for Turan’s home outing, as their average of 0.5 goals conceded per game suggests a tight match. The model favours a Turan victory, assigning a 47 % chance to a home win, 30 % to a draw and 23 % to a Sumqayit win. With an expected 2.2 goals, the most likely total is two, a 28 % probability, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14 % chance. Turan’s recent 1.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home against similar-strength opposition contrast with Sumqayit’s 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded away, hinting at a low-scoring affair. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8 %), Under 5.5 (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1 %), Under 4.5 (92.4 %) and Home +2 handicap (92.0 %). Turan’s recent draw and Sumqayit’s three-game losing streak add context to the tight, defensive projection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan win
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.07
0.80
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.62
1.08
0.58
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.21
1.79
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.50
1.25
2.62
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.67
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.7%
Under 3.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.5%
Turan goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.1%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.9%
8.6%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Turan is 0.60 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Turan is 0.02 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Turan is 0.71 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Turan or Draw
77.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers Turan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan or Sumqayıt
69.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers Turan + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sumqayıt
53.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers Draw + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Turan over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Turan, so a minus line means Turan give that many goals of a start and Sumqayıt receive them. At -1, Turan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Turan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Turan)
Turan -2
8.5%
Draw -2
14.4%
Sumqayıt +2
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Turan)
Turan -1
22.9%
Draw -1
23.8%
Sumqayıt +1
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Turan)
Turan +1
77.0%
Draw +1
14.9%
Sumqayıt -1
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Turan)
Turan +2
92.0%
Draw +2
6.0%
Sumqayıt -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.24
0.75
0.08
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.36
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.38
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.17
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.4%
Under 1.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.6%
Under 2.5
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.33
0.50
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.93
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.25
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
Under 0.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
Under 1.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Turan and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Turan's defence is €1m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€5m vs €4m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →