Defensive solidity is the headline for Turan’s home outing, with a 0.64 average of goals conceded versus similar opposition and a 1.18 average of goals scored. Zira, on the road, has a higher 1.25 average of goals allowed but only 1.12 average of goals scored. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 36 % chance, a draw 32 %, and an away win 32 %. The expected total goals sits at 2.1, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.8 %. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, reflected in the under-goals selections: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9 %), Under 5.5 (97.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4 %), Under 4.5 (93.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.4 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (90.1 %). Turan’s recent draw and Zira’s two-game winning streak add narrative weight, but the defensive numbers suggest a cautious, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Turan win
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.07
0.80
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.62
1.08
0.58
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.19
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.64
1.50
0.62
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.1%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.5%
Turan goals ↓
Zira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.6%
2
6.9%
7.3%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.5%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Turan goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Turan is 0.18 points better than Zira in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Turan is 0.03 goals better than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Turan is 0.27 goals better than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Turan or Draw
67.0%
Avg Implied -
35%
32%
33%
covers Turan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan or Zira
67.6%
Avg Implied -
35%
32%
33%
covers Turan + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zira
65.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
32%
33%
covers Draw + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Turan over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Turan, so a minus line means Turan give that many goals of a start and Zira receive them. At -1, Turan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Turan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Turan)
Turan -2
4.3%
Draw -2
10.0%
Zira +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Turan)
Turan -1
14.3%
Draw -1
20.3%
Zira +1
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Turan)
Turan +1
67.0%
Draw +1
19.7%
Zira -1
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Turan)
Turan +2
86.7%
Draw +2
9.4%
Zira -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.24
0.75
0.08
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.33
0.50
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Turan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Turan's squad is €2m less valuable than Zira's (€10m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Turan's attack is €2m less valuable than Zira's (€3m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Turan and Zira have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Turan and Zira have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt