Twente’s home form is a clear advantage, with a 62% chance of winning and a 23% draw probability, while Telstar’s away odds sit at 15%. The model therefore picks a home win, driven by Twente’s strong home scoring (1.5 goals per game) and low conceding rate (0.75) against weaker opponents, versus Telstar’s weaker away scoring (1.0) and higher concession rate (1.67) against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Twente, with an 10.8% probability. Suggested picks include an away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, under 7.5 at 98.9% (edge 4%), away under 3.5 goals at 98.6% (edge 6%), away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1% (edge 6%), under 6.5 at 96.9% (edge 6%), home +2 handicap at 94.7%, away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.0% (edge 4%) and home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.5% (edge 8%). Twente’s recent 2-game winning run and a 4-1 victory over Cambuur contrast with Telstar’s 2-straight defeats and a 0-4 loss to Ajax, underscoring the home side’s advantage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Twente win
62.1%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.29
Edge
-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.29
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied 16.7% · @ 5.59
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.81
Unibet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Betano
5.70
Telstar win
15.3%
Avg Implied 10.8% · @ 8.66
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.20
BetVictor
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Twente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.23
2.08
0.77
2.18
1.59
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
0.00
1.40
2.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
1.15
2.38
0.88
1.80
1.60
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.09
1.50
0.75
3.00
1.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telstar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.64
1.57
1.56
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
1.79
1.25
1.88
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.38
2.17
1.17
1.90
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.09-5.2%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 6.42+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.37-11.6%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 2.93+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
10Bet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Unibet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
2.88
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
@ 1.95-14.3%
Under 3.5
65.9%
@ 1.83+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
@ 1.65-2.8%
No
46.8%
@ 2.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.65
No
10Bet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.8%@ 7.92+5.1%
1-1
10.8%@ 10.81+6.6%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.46+4.6%
1-0
9.7%@ 9.83+5.1%
3-0
7.3%@ 8.86+2.2%
3-1
6.7%@ 9.28+1.9%
0-0
6.2%@ 21.44+4.1%
2-2
4.6%@ 15.75+1.7%
Twente goals ↓
Telstar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
3.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.7%
11%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.3%
6.7%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Twente goals (down), columns = Telstar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Twente is 0.62 points better than Telstar in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Twente is 0.29 goals better than Telstar in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Twente is 0.44 goals better than Telstar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Twente is 9.0 percentage points better than Telstar in terms of average possession (54% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Twente
For 7.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.7 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Telstar
For 3.8 · Against 8.1 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Twente
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.4
3.1
3.7
20.5
19.6
21.3
vs Stronger (10)
11.0
8.0
13.0
3.5
3.0
3.8
21.8
23.0
21.0
vs Similar (20)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.8
3.2
4.3
20.8
18.6
22.8
vs Weaker (20)
9.2
9.6
8.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
19.6
19.0
20.1
% over line
41%
33%
48%
42%
36%
46%
39%
38%
40%
% under line
59%
67%
52%
58%
64%
54%
61%
62%
60%
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telstar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.8
3.0
2.6
3.3
22.4
22.4
22.3
vs Stronger (17)
10.6
9.6
11.4
3.1
2.5
3.6
19.4
18.5
20.1
vs Similar (33)
10.6
10.8
10.3
2.9
2.7
3.2
24.0
24.4
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
54%
58%
34%
16%
52%
50%
58%
42%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
66%
84%
48%
50%
42%
58%
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.0%
@ 1.41-7.7%
Under 9.5
42.0%
@ 2.71+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.92
Unibet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.1%
Under 21.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Twente or Draw
84.7%
Avg Implied 88.7% · @ 1.07
Edge
-4.0%
62%
23%
15%
covers Twente + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Twente or Telstar
77.4%
Avg Implied 84.1% · @ 1.12
Edge
-6.7%
62%
23%
15%
covers Twente + Telstar
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Draw or Telstar
37.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.48
Edge
+10.7%
62%
23%
15%
covers Draw + Telstar
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.48
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Twente over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
@ 1.03-3.5%
Under
13.1%
@ 9.72+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Betano
8.00
Twente over/under 1.5
Over
60.2%
@ 1.26-13.4%
Under
39.8%
@ 3.50+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Twente over/under 2.5
Over
33.1%
@ 1.85-17.1%
Under
66.9%
@ 1.86+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Twente over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
@ 3.19-14.3%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.31+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Telstar over/under 0.5
Over
60.2%
@ 1.56+0.7%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.28-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
Telstar over/under 1.5
Over
23.5%
@ 3.69-1.7%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.24+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Telstar over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
@ 9.75-2.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Telstar over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
@ 23.25-2.7%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Twente, so a minus line means Twente give that many goals of a start and Telstar receive them. At -1, Twente must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Twente win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Twente)
Twente -2
19.6%
@ 2.75-13.1%
Draw -2
19.3%
@ 4.06-2.9%
Telstar +2
61.1%
@ 1.99+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Unibet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Handicap -1 (Twente)
Twente -1
38.9%
@ 1.75-12.8%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 4.07+1.0%
Telstar +1
37.9%
@ 3.48+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.85
Away
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Handicap +1 (Twente)
Twente +1
84.7%
@ 1.06-1.7%
Draw +1
10.0%
@ 10.38+1.2%
Telstar -1
5.3%
@ 19.25+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Handicap +2 (Twente)
Twente +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.0%
Telstar -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Twente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.85
0.38
0.71
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.88
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telstar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.67
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.7%
@ 1.19-4.4%
Under 0.5
26.3%
@ 4.23+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 1.94-9.8%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.79+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.98
BetVictor
1.93
Under
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 3.93-9.4%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.21+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Under
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Twente over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.8%
@ 1.36-5.7%
Under
37.2%
@ 2.96+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.80
Twente over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.0%
@ 2.67-10.7%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.42+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.72
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
10Bet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Twente over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
@ 6.26-8.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.08+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Unibet
6.40
Betano
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Telstar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.3%
@ 2.67-0.4%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.42+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
10Bet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Telstar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 10.07-3.4%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Telstar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Twente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.77
1.23
0.38
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.69
1.50
0.38
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.82
0.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telstar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
1.21
1.00
1.00
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.88
1.25
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (16)
1.50
0.94
1.67
0.67
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
@ 1.11-4.4%
Under 0.5
20.3%
@ 5.90+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.40
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.58-9.7%
Under 1.5
50.9%
@ 2.26+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.65
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 2.78-12.0%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.40+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Twente over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.5%
@ 1.23-7.0%
Under
31.5%
@ 3.80+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Twente over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.6%
@ 2.08-10.8%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.67+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Twente over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.3%
@ 4.42-10.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.17+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Telstar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.1%
@ 2.19-2.1%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.60+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.24
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.56
Telstar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.0%
@ 7.07-4.0%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Telstar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.03
-
+6.0%
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
+8.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.9%
Under 5.5
92.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+9.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.17
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-
-
+10.7%
Under 5.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-3.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+9.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.2%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+14.3%
Home or Draw
84.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.06
-4.0%
Home +1 handicap
84.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-1.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.4%
1.34
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
+12.6%
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
-5.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
-4.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.40
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+12.0%
Home or Away
77.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-6.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+1.7%
Under 4.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.42
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
+10.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-4.4%
Under 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
1.27
Unibet
1.27
-
-
-
-
-2.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Twente
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Pjaca57%
Max Bruns50%
Younes Taha50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Daouda Weidmann33%
Ruud Nijstad20%
Robin Pröpper14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Rots33%
Robin Pröpper29%
Ramiz Zerrouki29%
Younes Taha25%
Wout Weghorst17%
Daouda Weidmann17%
Sondre Ørjasæter17%
Aske Adelgaard17%
Marko Pjaca0%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Max Bruns0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daouda Weidmann50%
Sondre Ørjasæter50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Marko Pjaca14%
Bart van Rooij14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Daan Rots0%
Max Bruns0%
Younes Taha0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Taha50%
Daouda Weidmann50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Marko Pjaca29%
Max Bruns17%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Ramiz Zerrouki0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Telstar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rui Mendes33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ronald Koeman Jr33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rui Mendes33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Abdelnour Soualhia0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Twente's squad is €79m more valuable than Telstar's (€87m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Twente's attack is €32m more valuable than Telstar's (€34m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Twente's midfield is €12m more valuable than Telstar's (€13m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Twente's defence is €35m more valuable than Telstar's (€39m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur