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UCD vs Finn Harps Result & Analysis

Date: 12/08/2022
Time: 18:45
Final 2-1
UCD
UCD
Vs
34%
30%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: Premier Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

UCD win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

UCDUCD

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L11D12L01L03L13L20W02L11DH·SHA19/05A·SHE23/05H·SLI27/05A·ST 17/06H·DER24/06A·DUN01/07H·BOH07/07A·SLI17/07H·SHE22/07A·DRO01/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.642.000.501.580.772.38
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (21)0.712.100.601.600.822.55
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %16% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L22D03L22D01L13L12L03L30WA·DRO20/05H·DUN23/05A·DER27/05A·SLI18/06H·ST 24/06H·SHA01/07A·SHE08/07H·DER17/07A·DUN22/07H·DRO05/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.881.800.851.380.922.25
vs Stronger (25)0.881.800.851.380.922.25
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %16% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-1 ✓
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.2%
UCD goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
09.4%9.1%6.6%2.8%0.9%
18.8%14%8.2%3.5%1.1%
26.2%7.9%5.0%2.1%0.7%
32.5%3.2%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.8%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UCD goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
UCD is 0.23 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 0.56).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
UCD is 0.13 goals worse than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
UCD is 0.16 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.97).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

UCDUCD

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

UCDUCD

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (0)---------
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
10.8
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
7.7
Derry City
5.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.7
Shamrock Rovers
6.5
Derry City
6.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Shamrock Rovers
25.5
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

UCDUCD

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L00D00D00D00D12L10W00D11DH·SHA19/05A·SHE23/05H·SLI27/05A·ST 17/06H·DER24/06A·DUN01/07H·BOH07/07A·SLI17/07H·SHE22/07A·DRO01/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.120.920.080.580.151.23
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.140.860.100.400.181.27
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %48% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D02L01L01L12L10W03L20WA·DRO20/05H·DUN23/05A·DER27/05A·SLI18/06H·ST 24/06H·SHA01/07A·SHE08/07H·DER17/07A·DUN22/07H·DRO05/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.840.380.460.421.25
vs Stronger (25)0.400.840.380.460.421.25
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %44% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

UCDUCD

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D12L01L03L01L10W02L00DH·SHA19/05A·SHE23/05H·SLI27/05A·ST 17/06H·DER24/06A·DUN01/07H·BOH07/07A·SLI17/07H·SHE22/07A·DRO01/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.521.080.421.000.621.15
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.571.240.501.200.641.27
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %28% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L11D01L21W00D01L02L00D10WA·DRO20/05H·DUN23/05A·DER27/05A·SLI18/06H·ST 24/06H·SHA01/07A·SHE08/07H·DER17/07A·DUN22/07H·DRO05/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.960.460.920.501.00
vs Stronger (25)0.480.960.460.920.501.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %32% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UCD over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
UCD wins
1
Draws
0
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

UCD vs Finn Harps · H/A from UCD
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/22AFinn Harps Vs UCD0-1
25/02/22HUCD Vs Finn Harps0-0

UCDUCD

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/22ADrogheda United Vs UCD1-1
22/07/22HUCD Vs Shelbourne0-2
17/07/22ASligo Rovers Vs UCD0-2
07/07/22HUCD Vs Bohemians1-3
01/07/22ADundalk Vs UCD3-0
24/06/22HUCD Vs Derry City0-1
17/06/22ASt Patrick's Athl. Vs UCD2-1
27/05/22HUCD Vs Sligo Rovers1-1
23/05/22AShelbourne Vs UCD2-0
19/05/22HUCD Vs Shamrock Rovers0-3

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/22HFH Vs Drogheda United3-0
22/07/22ADundalk Vs FH3-0
17/07/22HFH Vs Derry City1-2
08/07/22AShelbourne Vs FH3-1
01/07/22HFH Vs Shamrock Rovers0-1
24/06/22HFH Vs St Patrick's Athl.2-2
18/06/22ASligo Rovers Vs FH3-0
27/05/22ADerry City Vs FH2-2
23/05/22HFH Vs Dundalk0-1
20/05/22ADrogheda United Vs FH3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

UCD
UCD
Ireland: Premier Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD0.52
HomeLDLLL0.42
AwayLLLWD0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%0%15%
AVG goals2.642.083.15
Over 1.5 %84%75%92%
Over 2.5 %44%33%54%
Over 3.5 %20%17%23%
Scored0.640.500.77
Conceded2.001.582.38
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: Premier Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.60
HomeLDLLW0.69
AwayLDLLL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%15%8%
AVG goals2.682.233.17
Over 1.5 %76%62%92%
Over 2.5 %64%46%83%
Over 3.5 %32%15%50%
Scored0.880.850.92
Conceded1.801.382.25
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet16%15%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3679
67%
2.2
6122+39
2.3
58%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.70.6
-
2Derry CityDerry City3666
50%
1.8
5327+26
2.2
64%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
3DundalkDundalk3663
47%
1.8
5032+18
2.3
64%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.40.9
-
4St PatrickSt Patrick's Athl.3661
50%
1.7
5737+20
2.6
75%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
5Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3652
39%
1.4
4941+8
2.5
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
6BohemiansBohemians3646
33%
1.3
4546-1
2.5
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.3
-
7ShelbourneShelbourne3641
28%
1.1
4049-9
2.5
72%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.4
-
8Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3638
25%
1.1
3458-24
2.6
81%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1020.91.6
-
9UCDUCD3729
19%
0.8
2967-38
2.6
81%
46%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps3620
11%
0.6
3371-38
2.9
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11WaterfordWaterford10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.01.0
-
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →

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