

Ujpest host Debreceni VSC in a Hungary: NB I match on August 2nd, with the away side's recent form catching the eye. Debreceni VSC are coming off a win, having beaten Nyiregyhaza 1-0, and this victory follows a 2-game winning run for Ujpest, who defeated Kisvarda FC 4-2 in their last outing.
The model predicts an away win, with a 46% chance of Debreceni VSC taking the three points. Ujpest are the underdogs, with a 29% chance of a home win, while a draw is seen as a 25% possibility. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3 goals.
The model's most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 11% chance. Ujpest have averaged 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Debreceni VSC have averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded away from home.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.8% chance of this occurring and a 10% edge, and Over 21.5 fouls, with an 81.3% chance of this happening. The home win percentage is 29%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 46%.
In a major upset, Ujpest secured a 4-2 win over Debreceni VSC, extending their current winning streak to three games. This result comes as a surprise, given that the model had predicted an away win for Debreceni VSC, which had a 46% chance of success. The model's call was incorrect, as the favourite failed to come through. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.8%, while the selection of Over 21.5 fouls also hit, with a probability of 81.3%.
Ujpest| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 1.71 | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 2.12 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.91 | 1.68 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.83 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Debreceni VSC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.90 | 1.40 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.75 | 1.15 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Debreceni VSC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 11% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Ujpest
Debreceni VSC
Ujpest| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 26.6 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 10.4 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 27.1 | 27.8 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.7 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 25.7 | 26.3 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 57% | 63% | 50% | 54% | 56% | 52% | 78% | 79% | 78% |
| % under line | 43% | 37% | 50% | 46% | 44% | 48% | 22% | 21% | 22% |
Debreceni VSC| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 27.6 | 28.4 | 26.8 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 28.9 | 29.0 | 28.8 |
| vs Similar (36) | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 26.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 85% | 90% | 80% |
| % under line | 58% | 60% | 55% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 15% | 10% | 20% |
Ujpest| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 0.68 | 1.10 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Debreceni VSC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.40 | 0.89 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 84.8% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +10.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.4% | 1.24 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.17 | +6.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.0% | 1.43 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.36 | +7.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 5-2 | |
| 13/04/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/12/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/08/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 27/04/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/02/24 | H | 1-2 |
Ujpest| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 7-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
Debreceni VSC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11.0 | 75% | 4.8 | 75% | 25.0 | 100% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 2 | Vasas | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Ujpest | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 13.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | 31.5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 4 | Nyiregyhaza | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | Gyori ETO FC | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 11.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 50% | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 6 | MTK Budapest | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 8.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 28.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 25% | 10.0 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 25.7 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 8 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 29.5 | 100% | 40 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 9 | Paks | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.0 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 26.2 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 47% |
| 10 | Debreceni VSC | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 15.3 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 7.7 | 0% | 3.0 | 33% | 23.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 6.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 51% |